Tucker Carlson's favourite "political scientist", John Mearsheimer, and his ATROCIOUS predictions on the war in Ukraine:

Feb. 2022: "I don't think Russia is going to invade."
Sep. 2023: "The Ukrainians are doomed to lose."
Jan. 2024: "It's ridiculous to think Ukraine can hold the line in 2024."
Apr. 2025: "It's unimaginable Ukraine will hang on beyond 2025."
Jul. 2026: "The Russians are slowly moving forward."

The Jim Cramer of foreign policy predictions.

Which map is better?

Dumb name, but I don't know what else to call it. Calling it a "Mexican standoff" seems worse somehow - it's neither necessarily Mexican and feels kinda racist.

It's seeming more and more like there is an emerging vector of power to take note of.

Trump's America
Netanyahu's Israel
Milei's Argentina

They are not inherently ideological in a traditional sense - they act as if they are democratic, but their actions are almost exclusively self-interested. Like dictators, their leaders do not act as to what is best for the country that necessarily matters, but best for the cult of personality (and their own power).

This group is characterised typically by far right hyper nationalism. They bare a lot of similarity with Putin's russia - although as to their connection or perhaps potential cooperation, it is harder to tell (Yeah, I know we like to dunk on Trump like he's a russian asset, but having a mutual interest of destablising the West and being an outright puppet are different things).

Europe, whilst hardly perfect and sin-free, along with other free democratic nations such as Japan, South Korea, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, among others - represent the side of the world that is being attacked from both sides.

The one to watch for (imo) is the emerging breakdown in relationship of the UK and Israel. The UK having defended Israel for decades is now having to come to terms with an Israel that will actively hurt the UK if it does not get its way.

A few months ago, Netanyahu and Milei (through their noncey partner Trump) conspired to pressure the UK into either fighting the war in Iran or giving up claim to the Falkland islands.

Now we see the consequence of it - the new axis is essentially saying to the UK: "Join us, or get punished". The Falklands is now the bargaining chip that now Trump has his eye on.

My thoughts go to the Tankies and vatniks who for ages have espoused the false claims and narratives that the Falklands have ever been Argentine. Who do they support now to keep their narrative consistent? Trump?

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GATO - the Global Alliance Treaty Organisation. I came up with the idea conceptually as part meme, part serious idea that we could have something like NATO but not restricted to the North Atlantic area, and could have mechnisms to safeguard our democratic values and institutions from hostile subversive actions (like those that brought in Trump in the US, or the AFD in Germany).

The thing that annoys me most about the stupidity of vatniks and Tankies, is that in their aclaimed support of leftist values, all they are helping to achieve is the further enshitification of democractic and European socialist norms, in favour of imperialistic conquests from russia, china, and now the far right fasicst axis that is emerging in the west. These are the fuckwits people think of when talking about "socialists". As a demsoc, it's fucking embarrassing.

Which map of France is better?

Extortionist Commanders Amputate Peruvian Man's Finger

A citizen of Peru has described the ordeal he faced after being recruited into the Russian army. According to 26-year-old Oscar, after returning from a combat mission, he was tortured for two days in an attempt to gain access to his bank account. He was threatened with death, having his body burned, and being reported as missing in action.

Ultimately, Oscar had his index finger on his right hand amputated, while his fellow soldiers voluntarily handed over their cards and passwords. The young man stated that he was tortured by a commander with the call sign "Asik," and that attempts are being made to suppress the investigation against him. He claims that everyone who was in the same unit as him has already died.

Last week, families of Peruvian men who were fraudulently recruited held a protest in Lima, demanding the return of their relatives. The Russian embassy claims that the Peruvian citizens went to fight voluntarily, knowing all the conditions and risks. Does the Ministry of Defense include a clause in the contract stating that commanders can amputate fingers? Perhaps in very small print?