Long review incoming…
Premise:
An exploration of leaders and their impact in 4 different spheres of life is presented – Politics, Business, Sports and Religion. Jared Diamond, fame of GUNS,GERMS & STEEL, presents the case in simple language, for newer social science techniques of NATURAL EXPERIMENTS (NE) to study when and which leaders truly made impact on history.
Jared presents a simple Hamlet test: Was Shakespeare the only one who could produce Hamlet-level plays, among all his contemporaries? If yes, he passes the Test, and can be said to be truly a unique impactful historical figure. Jared then uses this test (along with fascinating NEs) to gauge different leaders.
The book is divided into 4 parts:
1️⃣Political leaders – Sereste Khama, Rachel Carson, Assassinations, Inbred Monarchs…
2️⃣Business leaders – Resnicks, Jobs, Gates, Musk, Bezos, Zuckerberg...
3️⃣Sport Coaches – John Wooden
4️⃣Religious leaders – Mormons, Shakers, Jim Jones, Mahdi, Christianity…
Stuff I Loved:
- Carlyle v/s Tolstoy : Jared takes a NE approach, sort of a middle-ground aided by statistics to view history neither just as Carlyle’s GREAT MAN THEORY (“history of the world is just the biography of great men") nor as Tolstoy’s PREDETERMINED THEORY ("Leaders as History's Slaves”) .
- Genghis Khan successful only because of ... rain?! Because rain==> grass ==>horses==> war wins!! He was fortunate to have born in the wettest period of that region. Very intriguing fact.
- Seretse Khama : Shakespeare of Botswana!: An amazing analysis of Botswana’s 1st President. He passes the Hamlet test, though this was completely new to me – how he developed Botswana, how diamond mines were discovered just after Botswana’s independence. Great stuff.
- Rachel Carson: Influential for the Silent Spring and env. awareness. What’s intriguing is that in 1960 her cancer was diagnosed, 1962 book got published, 1964 she died. Did that knowledge affect her writing style? No one knows...
- After biographical methods, Jared compares the results via NEs to gauge Seretse Khama’s success. (Biographies can be inspiring, detailed, but subjective too). That was really cool – especially the Tables 5.1 + 5.2. Economic successes are compared for world leaders, not other spheres.
- Natural Experiments vs Lab Experiments: Jared explains limits and difficulties of applying lab methods to social sciences. NEs are one of the best ways to move forward. NE is basically observing what’s already happened through a statistical lens – used in astronomy, epidemiology, ethology etc. – where the scientist can’t MANIPULATE the subject. Using ANOVA + stats on large database, objective correlations can be obtained. Jared gives examples of pioneer studies in NE (US Min Wage study, UN Diplomats Study).
- O&V study of 300+ monarchs: AD 990-1795, monarchs in Europe were studied, asking “Does inbreeding lead to poor reign?” Inbreeding Coeff vs Ruling capability. Urban Population rise and territorial expansion were the parameters. Inverse relationship found between IC and Reign Quality. (~15% increases in both parameters during good rulers) Historians also reached similar conclusions on other parameters.
- Some Unusual studies!: Death causes and Rate of change of country's economy were studied - See the results!! (Important: leaders who’re educated, economics specialised are better!) Another study showed impact of deaths of close relatives of Board members on the Company’s profits è no effect, but CEO's relatives’ death was impactful. (Only +ve impact on profits seen when CEO's mother-in-law died! though statistically insignificant XD)
- DISCRETION: An important fact is the ability of leader to sort through the available options at any given time. Discretion/maneuverability or resourcefulness – it’s dependent on the leader as well as the conditions.
-Why SPORT LEADERS? : Good data, exact figures. latest and more frequent data. Sport leagues are homogenous. Coaches personalities + decisions very publicly observable. Biography method for Wooden was applied, then NE asking “Do coaches affect team successes?” Author claims that new stat tests and papers show a correlation between coaches, politicians and business leaders performance... whether Governors’ performance attract federal aid, whether business CEOs improve cashflow or not, and whether football coaches affect the frequency of fumbles and penalties etc. So similar Leadership questions arise in different fields.
- Religious leaders: Qualities reqd.= charisma + organizer + military leader. All 3 maybe in 1 (Islam) or divided (Jesus + Paul or the newer Mormonism: Smith + Brigham). Jared present 3 biographies of newer religions, and 3 of failed religions (Sudanese Mahdi, 2 Native American tribes) to demonstrate the significance of these 3 qualities, along with an economic and militaristic engine. European religions had these traits. Mormonism too. Mahdi didn't have enough to counter UK. Similarly the native American religions weren't strong enough to resist USA.
- Some New Guinea tribes were Christianised without military force - Material Goods worked! Europeans since 16th c. arrived there for trading ports. Missionaries gave religious and technological goods., schools, neutral arbitration, plane travels etc...(Interestingly, Cargo cults were similarly rationalized by Marvin Harris in my prev read)
- Good that Jared mentioned how other religions spread by different methods, like Indian Hinduism & Buddhism by merchants and Brahmins. So means of spread can vary based on circumstances, but - mostly, a religion’s success depends on charismatic leader, military strength, appeal (mass/equality etc). Jared then focuses on reasons for Christianity’s dominance.
- Epilogue: Jared discusses small tribes in new Guinea, some leaderless, some with leaders. (As popln size increases, big men/chief leaders emerge). But current strong leadership is a recent phenomenon, because we now inhabit multiple large scale identities - political, economic, religious, national, regional etc. Population rise is main reason as I understood. Jared lists some other traits than charisma for leaders: tenacity, persuasion, group discussion, intimidation/manipulation etc.
- Summary of book (nice reference to a 2 min summary of Hamlet’s play by Tom Stoppard@1976)
Do leaders make a difference ? Carlyle: Yes; Tolstoy: No. We see: it depends. Shakespeare, Seretse Khama, Lynda Resnick pass the Hamlet test. For most phenomenon, multiple paths existed, each with their unique leader stamp, but more or less similar. Very few Hamlet test passers. Leader’s Discretion plays a big role in all 4 spheres. Timing matters. Some were prescient, some accidentally succeeded. "Success in business depends 90% on timing".
- Author discusses Darwin, Mendel, Wegener. Darwin>Wallace in terms of popularising, even if he fails Hamlet test (Wallace also discovered natural selection). Mendel also fails (people discovered same mechanism 15yrs later, didn't popularise much). Wegener: Timing was off perhaps. Derided in his time, proved right later.
- Author appeals to new social scientists to utilise NE for research, with possible applications in military history, science history, arts, music, and socio-political movements. I'm eager to read such stuff too.
What I didn’t like:
- Hamlet test: Was there any equal of Shakespeare then? Some top playwrights were Ben Johnson, Christopher Marlowe and John Webster ... But none of their works match quality of Hamlet. None are performed today. So Jared proposes Shakespeare truly was superior - I think it's quite simplistic, even wrong! - if Hamlet was never produced, people would have elevated the next best thing to the same pedestal! I understand Hamlet test as a simple tool for getting the point across, but still…
- The title of the book is a bit misleading, it's not about Kings at all, rather religious leaders is the 4th Part. Don't know why he chose that. Kings are mentioned in 1 NE study only.
- Sports leaders was the least fav part for me, partly because I have no interest in basketball/baseball info provided, and partly due to my lack of knowledge of sports in general, especially coaches/league wins etc.
CONCLUSION:
- Really interesting book. I'd only read Jared's book GGS, and was completely floored by it. So simple, yet profound! Now it's been picked apart and even considered mid maybe, but I loved it. This was a completely different subject matter. Leaders, history, and the interesting social science studies being done recently. Somewhat moving towards a hard science approach, as much is possible in the social sciences.
- Overall, a nice work. Nothing too groundbreaking I guess, since most rational people would have the sense of judging history by a mix of multiple factors, and Carlyle + Tolstoy mix...but to see a new NE technique in social sciences was quite fun and novel for me. {Another is the network theory application to economics, - I am reading Wealth Networks by Akshay Chavan, albeit veeerryyy slowly, but it's also quite cool}. Anyways, such books make non-fiction fun!
Rating: 8.5/10. {-1.5 for the sports section}