r/NoStupidQuestions We're all learning 23h ago

Assuming the world magically agreed to a 4 week self quarentine, which diseases could be eliminated with this global effort?

This question also assumes the resources to implement this, like providing housing and food for everyone, would be offered. I'm curious strictly from the disease control point of view.

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51 comments sorted by

u/TillPsychological351 23h ago edited 22h ago

Measles. The maximum incubation period is 21 days (but usually less), and there's no known animal reservoir. It requires direct human-to-human transmission, and it doesn't persist very long in the environment. And unlike chicken pox or herpes simplex, there's no asymptomatic carrier state, once you recover, the virus is truly cleared.

Of course, there's a much easier way we could have eliminated measles by now...

For similar reasons, smallpox could have been eliminated using a global quarantine method. But we wisely chose a more practical option.

u/Lucky-Crow-3510 22h ago

immunocompromised people could still carry the virus much longer .. so it's really hard to have a guaranteed result ..

u/Kaiisim 22h ago

Thiiiiiiis.

A few COVID variants were from immunocompromised people where the virus basically hung out and mutated over and over and over.

You'd get rolling infections too.

Incubation period is 14 days too!

u/NervousSpring_2073 20h ago

Immunocompromised folks would make it tricky, they could keep the virus going longer than expected.

u/Pitiful-Pension-6535 21h ago

In fact, Measles' closest relative (Rinderpest) was successfully eradicated in 2011.

u/Vegemite-Sandwich901 18h ago

I'm skeptical that 4 weeks would do it. Because people live in families/groups, you'd have staggered transmission within a family group. There will be a kid who was exposed to measles 1 day before the quarantine starts, and will pass it on more than 9 days after exposure to people in her immediate group. People will emerge infectious and because measles is so contagious, you won't succeed.

If this is a through experiment where every person even babies lives in total isolation, maybe but that will cause other problems.

u/ThePeaceDoctot 11h ago

Incubation up to 3 weeks, and you have it for 1 to 2 weeks after symptoms. Even ignoring the fact that you can pass it on to people in the same household, there are going to be people still ill with it at the end of the 4 week quarantine period. Measles survives the 4 week quarantine.

u/404BrainCells 19h ago

Yeah, measles is the cleanest example here. Smallpox too, for the same basic reason, no animal reservoir and it needs infected people passing it around, so a hard 4 weeks would choke it off pretty fast. Stuff with longer incubation, silent spread, or any animal backup just keeps coming back...

u/Standard_Big_9000 13h ago

Don't tell RFK, Jr

u/Abject-Web7379 19h ago

Measles really said, “If everyone stays home for three weeks, I’m unemployed.” Honestly, humanity had the easy button sitting right there and still managed to make it complicated.

u/ScienceAndGames 22h ago

Well it’s easier to rule out what diseases wouldn’t be eradicated.

Anything environmentally or animal transmitted. So anything in the soil (Tetanus) or water or anything like bird flu.

Anything with a contagious lifespan in the body of more than a month, plenty of diseases stick around for ever like Herpes.

Anything that can survive on surfaces for more than a few weeks like C. diff

Any opportunistic ones that are generally harmless and often living in or on your body until conditions change and they become disease causing.

All in all, most diseases would find some way to persist

u/SeaGoat24 18h ago

plenty of diseases stick around for ever like Herpes

Just a minor nitpick, but herpesviruses and retroviruses are the only infectious diseases that stick around forever, so I would argue 'plenty' is the wrong word to use here.

The former is incurable because it infects nerve ganglions then goes dormant with occasional flares (e.g. chickenpox initial infection into shingles flares), and the latter because it alters the DNA of your cells (fun fact: there's a portion of the human genome that is entirely inherited retroviral DNA, and we don't really know what it does).

I guess you could argue that things like rabies and CJD stick around forever, but only because they're unavoidable death sentences at present. TB is another potential candidate as it does have a latent state, but there are curative treatments so it's not quite the same as retroviruses and herpesviruses.

u/ThePeaceDoctot 11h ago

fun fact: there's a portion of the human genome that is entirely inherited retroviral DNA, and we don't really know what it does.

You can in fact inherit entire, intact dormant viruses form your parents without ever being directly infected by them, and have those viruses be activated by environmental factors, becoming reinfected with a virus you never actually encountered in the first place.

I find that really cool, but I can't explain why.

u/devilsavocado 9h ago

This is really interesting. Can you point us to some more info?

u/ScienceAndGames 17h ago

I was also including ones that are curable but are lifelong if untreated but I can see how my choice of herpes as an example wouldn’t indicate that.

u/nx01a 13h ago

What about Norovirus? I'll never forget how sick I got with that one...

u/ScienceAndGames 4h ago

It can remain viable in contaminated water for months, so all it would take is a few infected wells for it to survive easily.

u/Lucky-Crow-3510 23h ago

none. 4 weeks is too short for most incubated microbes

vaccines can do that because they basically make almost everyone immune in the first place, so the disease cannot spread and naturally dies out.

It's a bit like burning down a small piece of forest to stop a wildfire. same thing.

u/Efficient-State-7300 23h ago

What minimum would yield some useful results?

u/marlee_dood 23h ago

I’d say at least a few months.

u/AshaNyx 22h ago

Plus a quarantine on everyone moving between countries for years

u/marlee_dood 22h ago

Many viruses take years to be evident and can lay dormant for decades. We would have to close off travelling completely at that point. But even still, within groups low-lying viruses will survive.

u/AshaNyx 22h ago

Also it would only really work on island nations, more contential countries always have animals or humans moving across borders

u/marlee_dood 21h ago

Exactly. It would be impossible

u/zephyreblk 21h ago

Also the reason why the melting of permafrost is problematic because we may encounter new dormant virus. Virus aren't living beings.

u/AshaNyx 19h ago

Tbh that's a very minor part. The permfrost is a carbon sink, if it starts melting all that carbon goes into the atmosphere.

u/RubyDustxox 13h ago

The problem isnt the humans, its all the animal reservoirs. Most of these diseases live in mosquitos, rodents, bats, birds. You could quarantine every person on earth for a year and the second you walk outside a mosquito bites you and malarias right back. only stuff thats human has a shot, which is basically what smallpox and polio are.

u/jackalopeswild 10h ago

Vaccines can't do this bc we can't vaccinate everyone simultaneously. It's not even close.

u/Harper_Joness 18h ago

Measles is the cleanest answer, maybe smallpox too if you’re counting history. In a 4 week quarantine, you’d only wipe out stuff with a short incubation, no animal reservoir, and no long-lived carriers, so once the last infected person clears out the chain dies. Things like TB, hepatitis, cholera, norovirus, anything with animals or water or soil in the mix would hang around

u/DifficultCurrent7 21h ago

Well advanced old age with dementia would certainly dwindle. Think of all those really frail elderly folks reliant on others for medicine, care and food. Alot of them would probably die if left to themselves for 4 days, even if left with food and medication, they might not have the capacity to actually use it.

u/Hemingways_Shotgun88 21h ago

Extrovertism.

u/marlee_dood 23h ago

Probably none

u/AshaNyx 23h ago

Pretty much none. The aim of the quarantine was to to just reduce the number of infections in a set period of time, so hospitals could cope.

Once it's in a country there's nothing to stop it, they only work if you do it for everything coming in which means you have to be an island

u/ForScale ¯\_(ツ)_/¯ 23h ago

None.

u/Redditlan 23h ago

Absolutely none.

u/tent_or_couch 20h ago

Spalling Mustakes

u/[deleted] 22h ago

[deleted]

u/TheOnesWithin 21h ago

Yes. That is why they said to magically assume it would happen.

u/notatoastedbread We're all learning 21h ago

It's not a question about that

u/RL203 22h ago

None

It is impossible to quarantine everyone.

Not unless you think living without electricity is a good idea. Hence living without sanitation, sewers, water and food and medicine, and health care.

u/BigBaldBeardGuy 22h ago

None. We learned that already. I’m not hitting the pause button on life.

u/SubstantialKBB 23h ago

We've done that before. None.

u/Soulsheartless 22h ago

We tried it but ultimately flawed within the first week or two.

u/Wise-Matter9248 22h ago

We didn't though, not really. Even in pretty strict areas there wasn't 100% quarantine. Because thousands of people would have starved.

u/Noof42 Stupid 21h ago

B Yamagata influenza probably went extinct because of the lockdowns and such.

https://ourworldindata.org/data-insights/a-flu-strain-has-likely-gone-extinct-since-2020

u/LuxTheSarcastic 21h ago

In 2020 people where I live were going out coughing on faces because they thought it was a hoax.

u/Competitive-Sleeper 22h ago

Iron boosting foods