Iranian authorities have repeatedly publicised arrests and clashes with small armed cells inside the country, or skirmishes with armed groups along land borders, particularly in the lead-up to and during the war with Israel and the United States.
In one of the latest instances, state media said on Sunday that members of an eight-member network allegedly affiliated with “anti-revolutionary” and “pro-monarchy” groups were arrested.
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) in the southern province of Fars accused those arrested of using Molotov cocktails and burning tyres during nationwide protests in January.
The leaders of Iran’s Islamic Republic have in recent weeks also expressed concern about more potential protests as public discontent rises amid deteriorating economic conditions.
During Iran’s January protests and on social media, a number of Iranians have expressed support for the return of the country’s monarchy, which was overthrown in the 1979 Islamic revolution.
US President Donald Trump, as well as Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, did openly discuss the goal of overthrowing the Iranian state during the opening months of the war, which began in late February. Calls for the monarchy to replace the Islamic Republic have been particularly prominent in demonstrations outside of Iran.
The Iranian government has since then announced a large number of arrests of people it says are supporters of the monarchy.
That has included 111 so-called “monarchist cells” arrested across 26 provinces, as announced on March 18 by the Intelligence Ministry.
Iranian authorities consider the January protests a “coup” orchestrated by armed agents of the US and Israel, including pro-monarchists.
The judiciary has executed dozens of prisoners since the start of the war, including some of those who protested in January. Numerous students, artists, businesspeople, journalists, healthcare workers and others have also been arrested over recent months for acts perceived by the authorities to be against national security.
Kurdish fighters active close to Iran’s western borders with Iraq are the country’s largest non-state armed threat.
Multiple groups, designated as “terrorist” outfits by Iranian authorities, have been based in the semiautonomous Kurdish region of northern Iraq for years.
Aside from the Kurdish forces, Iran’s disenfranchised and restive southeastern border areas are also home to separatist Baloch fighters.
In late August, security forces said they had broken up a cell belonging to Jaish al-Adl, the most prominent of the Baloch armed groups. One rebel fighter was reported to have been killed, six arrested, and rifles, grenade launchers and explosives seized. But sporadic attacks from the group have been ongoing, at times killing police officers and IRGC figures.
Alex Vatanka, a senior fellow at the Washington-based Middle East Institute, said that external support for the Kurdish and Baloch rebel groups could increase the security challenge facing the authorities.
“The Iranian state might see any signs of increased external support for ethnic militants to be of an existential kind this time around due to the war situation,” he told Al Jazeera.
“I only see ethnic militant groups as possibly decisive [in the war] if they are part of a broader externally-funded push to pressure the regime in Tehran, which the Islamic Republic is already anticipating and calls a foreign-led hybrid-war campaign,” Vatanka added.
For his part, Trita Parsi, the Quincy Institute’s co-founder, said that while separatist militias don’t pose an existential threat to the government, they “may prove tremendously problematic for Tehran if the war with the US escalates after the mid-terms and the US decides, for instance, to deploy ground troops”
“If Trump decides to accept military risks after the midterms that he earlier eschewed, such as deploying ground troops, then it is highly conceivable that the US will seek to use armed militias inside the country,” Parsi added.
Last week, Trump discussed the possibility that the pressure from war, sanctions and a naval blockade of Iran’s southern ports could ultimately lead to an internal uprising, or even the fall of the establishment.
US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said the pressure could prompt Iranians to take to the streets again, or even create divisions within the IRGC.
“Maybe the people will rise up,” he said. “There is 100 percent inflation, queues, the military isn’t getting paid, [and] the central bank governor was in a panic last week.”