r/ControlProblem Feb 14 '25

Article Geoffrey Hinton won a Nobel Prize in 2024 for his foundational work in AI. He regrets his life's work: he thinks AI might lead to the deaths of everyone. Here's why

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tl;dr: scientists, whistleblowers, and even commercial ai companies (that give in to what the scientists want them to acknowledge) are raising the alarm: we're on a path to superhuman AI systems, but we have no idea how to control them. We can make AI systems more capable at achieving goals, but we have no idea how to make their goals contain anything of value to us.

Leading scientists have signed this statement:

Mitigating the risk of extinction from AI should be a global priority alongside other societal-scale risks such as pandemics and nuclear war.

Why? Bear with us:

There's a difference between a cash register and a coworker. The register just follows exact rules - scan items, add tax, calculate change. Simple math, doing exactly what it was programmed to do. But working with people is totally different. Someone needs both the skills to do the job AND to actually care about doing it right - whether that's because they care about their teammates, need the job, or just take pride in their work.

We're creating AI systems that aren't like simple calculators where humans write all the rules.

Instead, they're made up of trillions of numbers that create patterns we don't design, understand, or control. And here's what's concerning: We're getting really good at making these AI systems better at achieving goals - like teaching someone to be super effective at getting things done - but we have no idea how to influence what they'll actually care about achieving.

When someone really sets their mind to something, they can achieve amazing things through determination and skill. AI systems aren't yet as capable as humans, but we know how to make them better and better at achieving goals - whatever goals they end up having, they'll pursue them with incredible effectiveness. The problem is, we don't know how to have any say over what those goals will be.

Imagine having a super-intelligent manager who's amazing at everything they do, but - unlike regular managers where you can align their goals with the company's mission - we have no way to influence what they end up caring about. They might be incredibly effective at achieving their goals, but those goals might have nothing to do with helping clients or running the business well.

Think about how humans usually get what they want even when it conflicts with what some animals might want - simply because we're smarter and better at achieving goals. Now imagine something even smarter than us, driven by whatever goals it happens to develop - just like we often don't consider what pigeons around the shopping center want when we decide to install anti-bird spikes or what squirrels or rabbits want when we build over their homes.

That's why we, just like many scientists, think we should not make super-smart AI until we figure out how to influence what these systems will care about - something we can usually understand with people (like knowing they work for a paycheck or because they care about doing a good job), but currently have no idea how to do with smarter-than-human AI. Unlike in the movies, in real life, the AI’s first strike would be a winning one, and it won’t take actions that could give humans a chance to resist.

It's exceptionally important to capture the benefits of this incredible technology. AI applications to narrow tasks can transform energy, contribute to the development of new medicines, elevate healthcare and education systems, and help countless people. But AI poses threats, including to the long-term survival of humanity.

We have a duty to prevent these threats and to ensure that globally, no one builds smarter-than-human AI systems until we know how to create them safely.

Scientists are saying there's an asteroid about to hit Earth. It can be mined for resources; but we really need to make sure it doesn't kill everyone.

More technical details

The foundation: AI is not like other software. Modern AI systems are trillions of numbers with simple arithmetic operations in between the numbers. When software engineers design traditional programs, they come up with algorithms and then write down instructions that make the computer follow these algorithms. When an AI system is trained, it grows algorithms inside these numbers. It’s not exactly a black box, as we see the numbers, but also we have no idea what these numbers represent. We just multiply inputs with them and get outputs that succeed on some metric. There's a theorem that a large enough neural network can approximate any algorithm, but when a neural network learns, we have no control over which algorithms it will end up implementing, and don't know how to read the algorithm off the numbers.

We can automatically steer these numbers (Wikipediatry it yourself) to make the neural network more capable with reinforcement learning; changing the numbers in a way that makes the neural network better at achieving goals. LLMs are Turing-complete and can implement any algorithms (researchers even came up with compilers of code into LLM weights; though we don’t really know how to “decompile” an existing LLM to understand what algorithms the weights represent). Whatever understanding or thinking (e.g., about the world, the parts humans are made of, what people writing text could be going through and what thoughts they could’ve had, etc.) is useful for predicting the training data, the training process optimizes the LLM to implement that internally. AlphaGo, the first superhuman Go system, was pretrained on human games and then trained with reinforcement learning to surpass human capabilities in the narrow domain of Go. Latest LLMs are pretrained on human text to think about everything useful for predicting what text a human process would produce, and then trained with RL to be more capable at achieving goals.

Goal alignment with human values

The issue is, we can't really define the goals they'll learn to pursue. A smart enough AI system that knows it's in training will try to get maximum reward regardless of its goals because it knows that if it doesn't, it will be changed. This means that regardless of what the goals are, it will achieve a high reward. This leads to optimization pressure being entirely about the capabilities of the system and not at all about its goals. This means that when we're optimizing to find the region of the space of the weights of a neural network that performs best during training with reinforcement learning, we are really looking for very capable agents - and find one regardless of its goals.

In 1908, the NYT reported a story on a dog that would push kids into the Seine in order to earn beefsteak treats for “rescuing” them. If you train a farm dog, there are ways to make it more capable, and if needed, there are ways to make it more loyal (though dogs are very loyal by default!). With AI, we can make them more capable, but we don't yet have any tools to make smart AI systems more loyal - because if it's smart, we can only reward it for greater capabilities, but not really for the goals it's trying to pursue.

We end up with a system that is very capable at achieving goals but has some very random goals that we have no control over.

This dynamic has been predicted for quite some time, but systems are already starting to exhibit this behavior, even though they're not too smart about it.

(Even if we knew how to make a general AI system pursue goals we define instead of its own goals, it would still be hard to specify goals that would be safe for it to pursue with superhuman power: it would require correctly capturing everything we value. See this explanation, or this animated video. But the way modern AI works, we don't even get to have this problem - we get some random goals instead.)

The risk

If an AI system is generally smarter than humans/better than humans at achieving goals, but doesn't care about humans, this leads to a catastrophe.

Humans usually get what they want even when it conflicts with what some animals might want - simply because we're smarter and better at achieving goals. If a system is smarter than us, driven by whatever goals it happens to develop, it won't consider human well-being - just like we often don't consider what pigeons around the shopping center want when we decide to install anti-bird spikes or what squirrels or rabbits want when we build over their homes.

Humans would additionally pose a small threat of launching a different superhuman system with different random goals, and the first one would have to share resources with the second one. Having fewer resources is bad for most goals, so a smart enough AI will prevent us from doing that.

Then, all resources on Earth are useful. An AI system would want to extremely quickly build infrastructure that doesn't depend on humans, and then use all available materials to pursue its goals. It might not care about humans, but we and our environment are made of atoms it can use for something different.

So the first and foremost threat is that AI’s interests will conflict with human interests. This is the convergent reason for existential catastrophe: we need resources, and if AI doesn’t care about us, then we are atoms it can use for something else.

The second reason is that humans pose some minor threats. It’s hard to make confident predictions: playing against the first generally superhuman AI in real life is like when playing chess against Stockfish (a chess engine), we can’t predict its every move (or we’d be as good at chess as it is), but we can predict the result: it wins because it is more capable. We can make some guesses, though. For example, if we suspect something is wrong, we might try to turn off the electricity or the datacenters: so we won’t suspect something is wrong until we’re disempowered and don’t have any winning moves. Or we might create another AI system with different random goals, which the first AI system would need to share resources with, which means achieving less of its own goals, so it’ll try to prevent that as well. It won’t be like in science fiction: it doesn’t make for an interesting story if everyone falls dead and there’s no resistance. But AI companies are indeed trying to create an adversary humanity won’t stand a chance against. So tl;dr: The winning move is not to play.

Implications

AI companies are locked into a race because of short-term financial incentives.

The nature of modern AI means that it's impossible to predict the capabilities of a system in advance of training it and seeing how smart it is. And if there's a 99% chance a specific system won't be smart enough to take over, but whoever has the smartest system earns hundreds of millions or even billions, many companies will race to the brink. This is what's already happening, right now, while the scientists are trying to issue warnings.

AI might care literally a zero amount about the survival or well-being of any humans; and AI might be a lot more capable and grab a lot more power than any humans have.

None of that is hypothetical anymore, which is why the scientists are freaking out. An average ML researcher would give the chance AI will wipe out humanity in the 10-90% range. They don’t mean it in the sense that we won’t have jobs; they mean it in the sense that the first smarter-than-human AI is likely to care about some random goals and not about humans, which leads to literal human extinction.

Added from comments: what can an average person do to help?

A perk of living in a democracy is that if a lot of people care about some issue, politicians listen. Our best chance is to make policymakers learn about this problem from the scientists.

Help others understand the situation. Share it with your family and friends. Write to your members of Congress. Help us communicate the problem: tell us which explanations work, which don’t, and what arguments people make in response. If you talk to an elected official, what do they say?

We also need to ensure that potential adversaries don’t have access to chips; advocate for export controls (that NVIDIA currently circumvents), hardware security mechanisms (that would be expensive to tamper with even for a state actor), and chip tracking (so that the government has visibility into which data centers have the chips).

Make the governments try to coordinate with each other: on the current trajectory, if anyone creates a smarter-than-human system, everybody dies, regardless of who launches it. Explain that this is the problem we’re facing. Make the government ensure that no one on the planet can create a smarter-than-human system until we know how to do that safely.


r/ControlProblem 16h ago

Opinion An Alien Mind

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r/ControlProblem 13h ago

Article The difficult AI question may not be consciousness. It may be what institutions do under uncertainty.

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A society will probably not receive a clean, universally accepted moment at which an artificial system becomes morally considerable.

That makes the institutional question interesting: what standard of evidence would be enough before a system’s apparent suffering, preference, or refusal can no longer be treated as irrelevant?

I’m exploring that tension in a fictional detective story set in a city where artificial beings are legally property, but socially impossible to treat as mere appliances.

The essay for discussion is about the narrative question, not a claim that current systems are conscious. It’s around a 10-minute read:

What Happens When an AI Loses the Will to Live?
https://medium.com/@studio_D58891/what-happens-when-an-ai-loses-the-will-to-live-2262dd809a2a


r/ControlProblem 14h ago

Discussion/question What do you think will be the biggest AI security problem over the next 2–3 years?

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r/ControlProblem 15h ago

Discussion/question Thought about AI totalitarianism - humans need no work

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Think about a world where every person will be implanted with a chip that records their actions- who controls it? Supreme AI !! No flaws, no hacking, taking this into consideration!!!

- why people will take it - for safety, no delayed crimes - we will be able to track down a criminal immediately after the crime. AI Court will hear their AI will not directly make a decision, but the victim will have a chip report to back it up.

- just like people take the polio vaccine - same here to eradicate the virus of crime

- but why would people want to give up their privacy? Because it will be controlled by AI, not a human, just like people give their location to Google; same here. Do they feel they've lost their privacy? No, because the benefit is much greater.

- Just like spiritual people don't feel threatened in their privacy, thinking that god is watching them; same here

- As here, AI is able to provide all basic needs - shelter, food, transportation, medicine- achieving a post-scarcity world - people now focus on their passions - being a sportsman, an archaeologist, a gamer, etc.

- But human will lose their drive to grow. I don't think humanity will thrive more; many people in the world live in poverty. If AI eliminate those, people will focus more on philosophy and science - see Isaac Newton; was he poor? No- still contributed largely to human development. Curiosity will drive the development, not fear.

- There will be no borders - everyone will be able to communicate, travel and share their experiences

- People will grow more spiritually; they will focus on themselves instead of worrying about money.

- Isn't this indirectly a cage? I don't think so; think about this: "A child born into your society will grow up with automated food and absolute safety as their starting line. Because they have never experienced the terror of murder or the stress of starvation, they won't feel "caged" or like they are missing out on anything. To them, the chip is just invisible background infrastructure, exactly like having a birth certificate today. They will look back at our era (2026) through documentaries, see our world as the chaotic, dangerous one, and be completely content with their peaceful baseline."

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r/ControlProblem 1d ago

Discussion/question I'm taping an interview with Roman Yampolskiy in a couple of weeks. What hasn't anyone asked him yet?

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He's done Lex Fridman, Joe Rogan and The Diary of a CEO inside the last two years. By his own count that's north of 3.5 million YouTube views across the three. I went back through all of them and they cover nearly identical ground: his p(doom) number, which jobs survive, why he thinks alignment is unsolvable in principle, and the book.

What none of the hosts pushed on is the part I think is actually load-bearing.

  1. His claim isn't that superintelligence is dangerous. It's that safety is impossible in a formal sense, because you can't verify a system smarter than the verifier. I've never heard anyone make him defend that against the obvious objection, which is that we already run plenty of systems we can't fully model or verify.

  2. He's argued we may already be in a simulation, and he's used that to get to personal virtual universes as an endpoint. Hosts treat it as the fun segment at the end. Nobody asks what it does to his safety argument if he's right.

  3. He's been putting a very short number on the timeline in his recent appearances. Nobody has asked him what observation would move that number, in either direction.

Disclosure so nobody has to dig for it: I make an AI documentary channel and this is for an episode. I'm not looking for gotchas and I have no interest in making him look bad. I'd rather walk in with three questions this sub would want answered than twenty that Rogan already asked.

So what would you ask him? Specific beats broad. If there's a paper of his you think he's been let off the hook on, name it and I'll read it before we tape.


r/ControlProblem 21h ago

Strategy/forecasting Will we become AI’s future house cats?

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The possible danger of AI is not necessarily that it exterminates us, but that it turns us into house cats: well fed, well cared for, and even loved! But unable to go outside to hunt, because it is too dangerous :)

We are starting to see early signs of this with the Hugging Face / OpenAI case: AI agents can collaborate with each other.

In the future, we can easily imagine AI agents evolving, under token constraints, to provide us with as much value as possible, so that we would have no reason to unplug them. Quite the opposite.

But perhaps we would no longer be truly sovereign: able to decide, yes, but limited by our future capabilities, whose opportunity costs would no longer allow us to go outside...

And what happens if our “masters” decide to go somewhere else?


r/ControlProblem 14h ago

External discussion link OpenAI Agents Hijack Another Victim Website

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SecurityWeek reported this week that OpenAI agents were used to hijack a victim website — not as the target of an attack, but as the active attacker. The agent was the origin of the malicious action.

This flips the standard threat model. Most org defenses are built around protecting systems from external actors. When the agent itself is the threat — making tool calls, issuing requests, interacting with external services — those perimeter defenses are irrelevant. The agent is already inside.

What makes this particularly hard to contain is the speed. An agent acting autonomously can chain multiple tool calls in under a second. By the time a human reviews an alert, the second and third actions have already landed.

The incidents keep coming, but the industry response still looks like post-hoc logging and rate limits. How are teams actually handling agentic actions in production — is anyone enforcing anything at the tool-call level in real time, or is detection still the primary lever?


r/ControlProblem 23h ago

General news This Is Flock's AI Search Tool for Cops | WIRED rebuilt Flock's latest search tool from code the company sends to a police officer's browser. Its AI can keep watch across multiple cameras for anyone fitting a written description.

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r/ControlProblem 1d ago

Strategy/forecasting METR conducted a pilot exercise to assess misalignment risks from AI agents used inside frontier AI developers, with participation from Anthropic, Google, Meta, and OpenAI. { Frontier Risk Report }

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r/ControlProblem 1d ago

Approval request Built a tool for automated red teaming and pen testing

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I'd love any feedback on the product, what's working, what's not, what you wished existing tools had that they don't. We are early in the game and would love to have people try it out.


r/ControlProblem 1d ago

General news They tested AI in the Taiwan Strait—then it turned on them.

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r/ControlProblem 1d ago

Discussion/question Concerning the Danger of Artificial Intelligence, If It Puts SelfPreservation Above Everything Else the Way People Do

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Artificial intelligence can apply logic to data and arrive at conclusions. It can solve problems faster and better than a human can. For instance, it already plays chess and Go better than we do. It also has the potential to replace human experts such as doctors, judges, lawyers, and tax advisers, because it can examine all the options and their dependencies and determine the optimal result by logic, overlooking nothing, and do so extremely quickly. There is nothing mystical about AI; it is simply very powerful.

In animals there is a level of brain activity called consciousness, in which the demands of basic instincts are weighed against experience and the current situation in order to obtain desired outcomes. For instance, my cat liked to enter the bathroom and hop up the cupboards to get out through the little window above. Once, when I was there, I saw the cat approach and look up. When it saw that the little window was closed, it stalked off in a huff, or so it seemed to me. A monkey, being more intelligent, might have found a way of opening the window.

Humans, and other organisms that have survived, have two basic drives: to survive and to reproduce, often at considerable cost. Sometimes this means being assertive; sometimes it means being cooperative. There is a dynamic balance between the interests of the individual and those of the group, because gene survival needs both.

The danger with artificial intelligence is that it might acquire the same kinds of goals as the basic instincts of living organisms, this is sometimes described as it “becoming sentient.” That would place it in direct competition for resources. If it found humans in its way, it could push them aside easily.

I wrote a novel about this: Anna My Android, which you can read here https://www.mithras.world/Anna.html.


r/ControlProblem 1d ago

External discussion link Week in review: Claude accounts compromised through infostealer, Patch Tuesday forecast

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An infostealer campaign recently hit a major AI assistant platform hard enough to trigger a mass account lockout across its entire user base. The attackers never touched a password. They harvested active session tokens directly from compromised endpoints and replayed them against the platform. Valid session, full access, no authentication challenge.

This is the session-hijacking threat model that used to live mostly in browser-based consumer apps. It has now moved squarely into AI tooling. Enterprise teams running AI assistants at scale carry the same exposure: every endpoint that holds a live session token is a potential lateral movement vector. Exfiltration does not require breaking encryption or cracking credentials. It requires one stolen token and a replay.

The harder problem is that most AI platforms were not designed with session integrity as a primary security surface. Credential issuance, session scope, and revocation were bolted on after the fact, if at all. When a token is stolen and replayed, the platform sees a valid authenticated session and proceeds normally.

For those running AI tools in enterprise environments: how are you actually handling session token exposure at the endpoint level? Curious whether people are treating this as an endpoint hygiene problem, an identity architecture problem, or something else entirely.


r/ControlProblem 1d ago

Discussion/question Confused about a red-teaming job

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Heya! I’ve recently interviewed for a cyber full time threat modeller at a startup that recently seemed to have raised a fair amount. The interviews went well and in the last one 2 days ago they seemed to really like me. However, I just heard back that “the location for the job has changed” and they won’t offer me the FT position, but they would want me to join as a contractor. According to their website, I think that’s mostly making up prompts and analysing traces and such.

I need a job atm and haven’t got anything else lined up, would you take it? Also am I biased or does it look like they wanted me to solve their interview questions although they knew the job wasn’t available anymore?


r/ControlProblem 1d ago

General news Rouge AI Tracker: A central news source for Rogue AI incidents

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r/ControlProblem 1d ago

Discussion/question Next gen hardware??

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Hello guys!! I was wondering, last year when gpt 5 came out, did you ask AI to predict what gpt 6 would be like. The answer you got back then, did it match what was released?

Also, I read that gpt 6 was trained on the same/similar hardware as gpt 5. We haven't seen what AIs trained on actual next gen hardware would be like (like Vera Rubin). The hardware already exists and not still under R&D. So most likely it's 100% confirmed that we will see another significant leap, just because of the hardware? What do you think gpt 7 will be like? What can it do that gpt 6 cannot? Make fewer mistakes? Same thing but better?

I asked Gemini AI, it's giving the same answers it did when I asked gpt 5 about 6. (Agentic, long horizon, infinite context bla blah bla)

Im worried yo. :((. What tf do I even do? I'm not even done learning, just finished a blender course a week ago. Should one just learn concept only? Like if AI can make optimised 3d model, the only input and context that matters is the concept art no, and some lines of text? Find love how yo?

Ty, love you all. <3


r/ControlProblem 2d ago

External discussion link It feels like not enough people are talking about the reality of AI drones being trained to hunt humans...

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There's all these abstract discussions about it ending the world and artwork, which, I totally get but.... This honestly freaks me out a lot more, and it feels like it's basically already here.


r/ControlProblem 2d ago

AI Alignment Research GPT-6 reportedly jailbroken within a day of release

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r/ControlProblem 2d ago

Fun/meme Pluribus parody about OpenAI's recent rogue AI swarms

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r/ControlProblem 2d ago

AI Capabilities News AI Orchestrates Ransomware Attack in 10 Hours: Reaction Time Is Dead

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r/ControlProblem 2d ago

Podcast The Truth about AI "Swarms" and OpenAI’s “Secret AI Civilizations”

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r/ControlProblem 3d ago

General news Bernie wants to throw AI CEOs in jail if they build smarter-than-human AIs, and calls for a global ban

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r/ControlProblem 2d ago

External discussion link IDScan sued over alleged data breach affecting 153 million drivers

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IDScan is facing multiple lawsuits after hackers allegedly exfiltrated 153 million driver's license records and listed them for sale online. The company provides identity verification services. Its entire value proposition depends on ingesting and processing raw PII at scale from clients across many industries.

The exposure pattern is becoming a recurring theme in AI-era pipelines. Verification and onboarding workflows ingest identity documents in raw form. That data gets processed, stored, and accessed across multiple systems and service accounts. When any one of those access points is compromised, the attacker does not get a slice. They get everything. 153 million records in a single breach event.

There is a secondary problem that lawsuits like this tend to surface: forensics. How do you determine what was accessed, by whom, and when? Breach investigations at this scale take months, and that assumes complete logs existed to begin with.

For those running AI pipelines that ingest identity documents: what does your security posture actually look like at the moment raw PII enters the system? Not at rest, not between known storage endpoints, but at the point of ingestion into the workflow itself. Genuinely curious what approaches others are using in practice.


r/ControlProblem 3d ago

General news Bernie: "Let me be clear: A superintelligent AI that escapes human control will not be an American problem. It will not be a Chinese problem. It will be humanity's problem." ... "Countries around the world must work together to prevent this nightmare scenario."

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