r/worldnews • u/WorldNewsMods Slava Ukraini • 3d ago
Israel/Palestine /r/WorldNews Discussion Thread: US and Israel launch attack on Iran; Iran retaliates (Thread #22)
If you see any newsworthy information from a major news outlet or live broadcast, feel free to share a brief summary as a top-level comment in the discussion post.
Other redditors will appreciate if you include the source of where you read, saw, or heard the information.
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u/joshtaco 5h ago
The Telegraph: The Pentagon refused payout for soldiers who died in Iran conflict "because it isn’t a war"
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u/joshtaco 8h ago
Energy Secretary Chris Wright: "As we pass Labor Day, you'll start to see demand decline as we move out of summer driving season"
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u/Lordvalcon 5h ago
Or literally entering the time of year where diesel is most used and then after that right during the winter where everyone's going to need fuel again
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u/TheMailerDaemonLives 7h ago
And straight into everyone driving their kids to school and themselves to work, stfu
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u/asetniop 7h ago
"And as harvest season begins, farmers will be able to power their tractors and other equipment using MAGAhol, a diesel substitute that this administration will be making available to them in two weeks."
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u/EnragedMoose 7h ago
Wait until they figure out they need synthetic nitrogen for fertilizer...
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u/Breadfruitdeeznuts 4h ago
You mean the BS generated by this administration can't be converted to fertilizer fuel to run a country?
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u/joshtaco 8h ago
Energy Secretary Chris Wright: "I don’t want to have an opinion" on rising gas prices
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u/joshtaco 9h ago
Kpler: The Strait of Hormuz saw a 28 percent decrease in shipping last week to 77 vessels. The number of ships carrying cargo rather than sailing empty was reduced from 45 to 33. From September 4 to September 6, 21 of 28 transiting vessels used Iran’s unilateral routing scheme rather than standard shipping lanes – including seven of the eight transits on the final day.
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u/joshtaco 9h ago
Jerusalem Post: Navy SEALS spent 4 months clearing mines from the Strait of Hormuz
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u/joshtaco 9h ago
Trump Truth Social post: "Oil prices will drop precipitously, like everything else is dropping (but more!), when we WIN the war with Iran. Three Dollars a gallon, but ultimately, below Two Dollars a gallon. It will all happen quickly, and Iran will never have a Nuclear Weapon. MAGA! President DJT"
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u/scarblade666 6h ago
Eternal reminder that the last time oil prices dropped too low Trump enlisted Saudi Arabia's help to lower oil production and drive up prices.
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u/Cactusfan86 7h ago
I thought we already won the war that isn’t a war but actually is a war. Several times in fact
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u/asetniop 14h ago
Greetings, gang! Actually on time today with the weekly update, it's been 15 weeks since a deal was declared 95% done. That's 99.999969% done!
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 14h ago
Rebuilding trust with Iran will be ‘mountain to climb', says Gargash
Rebuilding trust with Iran will be a difficult task even if relations can be restored, Dr Anwar Gargash, diplomatic adviser to President Sheikh Mohamed, said on Monday, after six months of war and Iranian attacks on Gulf states.
“Relations can be restored more quickly than trust,” Dr Gargash told the Hili Forum in Abu Dhabi. “Trust is a mountain we will have to climb.”
He added there was nevertheless a path towards rebuilding relations, adding that the Gulf could unlock significant economic opportunities if Iran and its neighbours established “a durable principle of non-belligerence and mutual respect”.
He said Iran’s aggression against Gulf states had been “a serious strategic miscalculation” that damaged its relationships with its neighbours and deepened its isolation.
“The way out of this conflict does not run through threatening your neighbours or burning bridges with them. It runs through rebuilding these bridges, pursuing de-escalation and working towards a durable political settlement,” Dr Gargash said.
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u/OP_Skis_In_Jeans 12h ago
He said Iran’s aggression against Gulf states had been “a serious strategic miscalculation” that damaged its relationships with its neighbours and deepened its isolation.
You can say that again!
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 14h ago
Syria urges Arab unity, calls for support for recovery
Al-Shaibani said Syria was rebuilding state institutions and restoring sovereignty, adding that arms must be exclusively under state control and that armed factions had been integrated into the national army.
He said Syria was moving from war and destruction toward reconstruction, and called for Syria to be included in Arab funds and programs in 2027 to support its recovery.
On regional security, Al-Shaibani said Syria rejected Iranian attacks on Gulf Arab states and Jordan, while highlighting Damascus’ commitment to a diplomatic solution and efforts to end Israeli attacks and incursions.
https://www.arabnews.com/middle-east/syria-urges-arab-unity-calls-for-support-for-recovery-3000814
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 14h ago
Canada condemns Iran’s destabilizing actions in the Middle East
September 6, 2026 - Ottawa, Ontario - Global Affairs Canada
Today, the Honourable Anita Anand, Minister of Foreign Affairs and the Honourable François-Philippe Champagne, Minister of Finance and National Revenue, issued this statement:
“Canada condemns and calls on Iran to immediately end its destabilizing activities in the Middle East. Iran’s actions, including its continued threats to vessels seeking to transit the Strait of Hormuz, its pursuit of illicit nuclear activities, and its support for regional proxy groups, continue to undermine global peace and security.
“Canada is working closely with partners, including within the G7, to maintain significant pressure on Iran.
“This includes support for efforts led by the United States, as well as France and the United Kingdom, to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, and continued sanctions on Iran, such as those announced under U.S.-led Operation Economic Outcast. Canada continues to support effort aimed at disrupting Iran’s ability to finance terrorist activities.
“Since 2010, Canada has sanctioned 492 Iranian individuals and entities through the Special Economic Measures Act (SEMA) and the Justice for Victims of Corrupt Foreign Officials Act (JVCFOA).
“Canada will continue to pursue additional measures in coordination with its partners to advance peace and security in the region and maintain pressure on Iran to end its malign behaviour.”
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u/Kingy10 19h ago
Reports that Saudi Aramco facilities in Jizan have been hit again.
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u/DancingDonkeyHehe 14h ago
I guess turkey is going to help them now..right? Right?
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u/souldragon15z 14h ago
they dont help their own population do u really think they will help SA yeah no
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u/joshtaco 19h ago
Energy Secretary Chris Wright: Says Americans have to drive less if they want lower gas prices
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u/in_da_tr33z 14h ago
Imagine how Fox News would have reacted if Jennifer Granholm had said this under the Biden admin.
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u/Teknotokon_II 19h ago
are you fucking kidding me with how tone deaf that dude is being???
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u/itsFelbourne 18h ago
He didn't actually say that, it's a clickbait article headline
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u/Teknotokon_II 18h ago
You know, I'm actually surprised he didn't outright say that with what shit is spewing from his boss' mouth.
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u/eva01beast 18h ago
Who knows, this may result in American cities being more pedestrian friendly, with better public transport facilities.
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u/CoyotesOnTheWing 1d ago
For all the claims about the oil coming out of the middle east lately, oil and gas prices (both futures and at the pump) continues to slowly rise. At first I thought that maybe there is less oil coming out than claimed but maybe it more coincides with reserves drying up.
That would mean any shocks to the oil market, such as Houthi attacks on Saudi Red sea ports or Iran hits Fujairah, UAE, then we could see a large spike since most of the world -minus China- don't have much of a safety net anymore.
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u/Veastli 15h ago edited 10h ago
At first I thought that maybe there is less oil coming out than claimed but maybe it more coincides with reserves drying up.
It's both.
The white house loudly touts the days in which significant number of tankers slip through at night, but that's not most days.
The weekly average of Gulf exports remains a small fraction of the pre-war levels. Whether that's 25% or 50% probably doesn't matter, because in either case, it's not enough to keep most nations from continuing to draw down their reserves.
The US, China, and others have been steadily drawing down their reserves over the past 6 months. Most of those reserves are now extremely low.
When these reserves hit bottom, prices will skyrocket. This is what Iran has been waiting for.
Because Iran realizes that $200+ per barrel is not politically sustainable for Donnie. When it happens, Donnie will deal. Suspect that deal will look almost exactly like the MoU, terms tightened up, vagueness removed, but largely the MoU.
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u/Larcye 10h ago
Because Iran realizes that $200+ per barrel is not politically sustainable for Donnie. When it happens, Donnie will deal. Suspect that deal will look almost exactly like MoU, terms tightened up, vagueness removed, but largely the MoA.
Probably 2 weeks before midterms if I was a betting man. Have their proxey's and themselves hit most oil infrastructure in the gulf which will require years to rebuild, when the SPR is basically out would immediately cause the price of oil to skyrocket.
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u/Veastli 10h ago edited 6h ago
Donnie and Republicans are already hugely unpopular in the US. Iran doesn't need to risk destruction of all their gas and oil to make them a little bit less popular.
Iran could have taken out most of the gulf region's oil and gas at any time. They haven't, because they don't want their own oil and gas destroyed. Iran has been playing game theory 101 - tit-for-tat. When the US / Israel hits an Iranian target, Iran hits a similar target.
The Pentagon estimated Iran still had 70% of their ballistic missiles at the time of the MoU. Perhaps more now, as they've had ample time to rebuild.
Suspect Iran will continue to deter passage through the Straits, no major infrastructure attacks (unless a response to the US), just more hits on tankers. Iran will wait until the world's reserves run dry, probably near the end of the year.
Brent is already back to $97 per barrel and rising steadily, WTI is not far behind.
If Iran keeps doing what they're doing, continues deterrence in the straits, but no major infrastructure attacks, US average gas will be over $5 per gallon at election time.
That's enough to do terrible damage to Donnie in the mid-terms.
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u/ohell 10h ago
Because Iran realizes that $200+ per barrel is not politically sustainable for Donnie. When it happens, Donnie will deal.
When that happens, Donnie will desperately want to nuke Iran to force a capitulation ... let us hope (against hope) there are enough sane voices left in the administration to firmly say "Donnie NO,
surrenderdealing is better".•
u/Veastli 10h ago
let us hope (against hope) there are enough sane voices left in the administration to firmly say "Donnie NO
Shouldn't be too hard to convince him.
Iran still has thousands of ballistic missiles, giving them the ability to destroy a large majority of the oil and gas processing in the gulf.
Iran would only do that if all of their own oil and gas were destroyed, or... WMDs were used against them.
Donnie knows this.
If he thought $200 per barrel was bad, he'd be told that using a nuke would result in $400 per barrel. $12 to $16 gallon gas in the US. His own House and Senate might actually impeach and convict if gas prices rose that high.
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u/SelfishlyIntrigued 16h ago
I dont think people realize even if Iran just said we give up due to reserves, Russia and instability this was already a 2 to 3 year problem of elevated pricing, if the reserves break we hit 200 a barrel but even if they don't we simply put excess strain replacing and refilling reserves and instability that takes years to fix.
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u/Lordvalcon 20h ago
Even the most favorable report put it at 40% of normal. And the more realistic numbers put oil through the strait at 10% of pre war levels.
And the longer time line the worst it gets. Sure on the best day maybe its 40 but over a week closer to 10%. And over the last month its 5% of normal monthly traffic
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
Energy Secretary Chris Wright: Says the US might not be able to reach a nuclear agreement with Iran that would prevent the country from having nuclear weapons
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u/MaximumFamiliar9080 1d ago
Iran must be getting tired of all this winning.
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 1d ago
Read it like this; "Of the few options available in preventing Iran from manufacturing a nuclear weapon, an agreement may not be one of them."
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u/MaximumFamiliar9080 22h ago
You know what else wasnt one of them, a strategic failure of a bombing campaign.
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 14h ago
Iran, can you please open the Strait with with respect to International and Customary law?
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u/MaximumFamiliar9080 13h ago
Yes exactly, thats exactly why the bombing campaign was such a failure, because the strait was open before it.
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
Houthi military spokesman Brigadier General Yahya Saree: Says the group’s forces shot down a Saudi CH-4 armed reconnaissance drone over al-Jawf province.
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
Iran’s top security official Mohsen Rezaei: Says Iran and Oman to sign agreed Strait of Hormuz passage maps in coming days
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
Iran’s top security official Mohsen Rezaei: Iran to announce new restricted zone outside Strait of Hormuz. The zone will begin from the line of the US Navy’s blockade and extend to areas in the Gulf.
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u/OP_Skis_In_Jeans 1d ago
Iran trying to set the stage for more attacks on shipping outside of its territorial waters I see...
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 1d ago
President Al-Alimi: Armed Forces Have Seized the Initiative in Taiz and Al-Hudaidah and Are Capable of Reclaiming All Territory
The Chairman of the Yemeni Presidential Leadership Council, Rashad Mohammed Al-Alimi, stated on Saturday that the Houthi group “will bear the full consequences” of what he described as a “military adventure,” emphasizing that Taiz Governorate will not be a safe passage for the projects of the group and its supporters following field gains achieved by government forces in Taiz and Al-Hudaidah.
During communications with military and field commanders to follow up on operational developments, Al-Alimi said that the armed forces have “seized the initiative” on the ground and are capable of continuing to reclaim territory, pointing out that recent developments on the Taiz and Al-Hudaidah fronts reflect the forces’ ability to counter Houthi attacks and sustain operations.
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He renewed his call to tribe members and fighters in Houthi-controlled areas not to drag their sons into the fighting, urging those still within the group’s ranks to return, stating that the continuation of fighting does not serve the interests of Yemenis.
Additionally, he directed the relevant authorities to provide care and medical treatment for the wounded, look after the families of fallen government force members, and ensure their rights and entitlements.
https://www.yemenmonitor.com/en/Details/ArtMID/908/ArticleID/181084
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u/joshtaco 1d ago
Tasnim: Weapons and other military equipment have been seized in Iran’s city of Oshnavieh, in West Azerbaijan province, allegedly linked to separatist groups with ties to Israel.
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u/OnlyRise9816 1d ago
So in other words: People who are just not aligned with the hardliners in the IRGC, and likely have zero ties or connections to Israel. But Iran wanted them gone.
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u/Superest22 1d ago
Just after I sold down on one of my oil stocks lol.
Oh well, no one’s ever gone broke by taking profits I guess and means I’m less inclined to doom scroll the war everyday.
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u/joshtaco 2d ago
TankerTrackers: Oil exports from Middle East down by 39% in August
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u/UsefulStooge 1d ago
The full tweet:
“Crude oil exports out of the Middle East during August 2026 were down 39% since the January & February baseline of 18.5 million barrels per day. The lowest point was during May; down 67%.
The current deficit is now only 7.2 Mbpd as opposed to 12.4 Mbpd.”
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u/combatwombat- 1d ago
I wish they would ban OP already all he does is spam editorialized shit like this and deliberately excludes links.
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u/MaximumFamiliar9080 2d ago edited 1d ago
Lemme tell you how this means Iran is loosing, the WH is an impeccable source and time is on Trumps side.
/s
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u/Born-Procedure-5908 1d ago
It being down 40% from its average despite it being nearly nonexistent the months previously is a good sign time is indeed on his side?
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u/MaximumFamiliar9080 1d ago
This is the entire region matey, not just the strait.
Also, far cry from the lies about "back to normal with US escort" garbage from a couple of days ago.
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u/samusaranx3 1d ago edited 9h ago
It doesn’t really matter where in the region it’s coming from as long as they can keep it coming, does it? Whether they can is another question entirely.
The Trump admin has possibly not made a single truthful statement in the last 9 months. However, they are clearly trying to sell the narrative that things are under control. And if they can stabilize gas prices where they are or even bring them slightly down, which is certainly possible given the increase in exports from “the region” over time, it does in fact make them more likely to succeed in selling that narrative.
You should not want something so badly that you start to ignore the reality in front of you, all that does is make it harder for you to see and do what you need to do to make what you want a reality. I.e., I know you want to hate on Trump but don’t do it to the point that you start misrepresenting reality or are unable to see past your nose.
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u/MaximumFamiliar9080 1d ago edited 1d ago
Ahh yes, comparing the number of apples you used to recieve to the number of oranges you currently recieve now is a great way to determine how many apples you are no long recieving.
Wonderful intelligence.
Edit: The mass of oil leaving the gul tells you nothing on its own regarding the mass of oil transiting through the straight.
Claiming the entire region is operating at 60 % of its pre-war capacity without also identifying in the same source of information, how much of the regions oil used to transiting the strait, is obfuscating at best.
If 40 % of the regions pre-war oil previosly transitted the strait, then the statement that "yay only, 40 % of the region oil is missing" is just the most hillariously useless cope.
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u/samusaranx3 12h ago
Girl, what? We’re comparing the number of apples you used to receive from a household (the Persian Gulf) to the number of apples you receive from that same household today, when one member of that house (Iran) is providing less apples. It is not apples and oranges at all, you are just jumping through hoops to misinterpret the information.
Punctuating your inability to understand a very simple logical point by insulting my intelligence is kind of hilarious.
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u/MaximumFamiliar9080 11h ago
Using only information in the quoted statement. How much oil is transitting the strait relative to what was transiting the strait pre-war?
Show your working for full marks.
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u/HiddenCity 1d ago
i would agree. all *gestures around* this and its only down by 39%? that's pretty favorable for the US. its not great, but its not the economic catastrophe detractors are hoping for.
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u/joshtaco 2d ago
IRGC: Says that its naval forces have attacked a remotely operated US drone boat, which it said was “attempting to enter the protected area of the Strait of Hormuz”.
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u/joshtaco 2d ago
AJE: Witnesses in the city of Taiz, Yemen are reporting “powerful explosions” in the southwestern city.
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u/joshtaco 2d ago
IRGC: Says several ballistic missiles fired at US aircraft carrier and Navy destroyer. They claimed that these two warships, “after sustaining damage and fearing further attacks, were forced to flee the conflict zone”.
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u/Cactusfan86 2d ago
Iran is just embarassing itself when it keeps claiming its hit US Navy ships. Considering the amount of damage they do successfully cause to other things I don’t get the point of repeatedly going back to this particular lie
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u/Roxalon_Prime 1d ago
Well maybe they are telling the truth, afterall a dent in a paint is also damage
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u/OnlyRise9816 2d ago
This isn't the first time this week Iran has claimed something similar. They keep gloriously smiting the US carrier group, only to have the group respawn a few hours later.
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u/insert_name_here_12 2d ago
Iran now patiently waiting for their 3 destroyed shadow fleet tankers to respawn.
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u/joshtaco 2d ago
IRIB: Iran’s military warns strikes on US military vessels will intensify if blockade continues
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u/Cactusfan86 2d ago
Considering Iran has yet to successfully hit a US navy ship I can’t imagine they are particularly shaking over this threat. Iran should save its munitions for shit it can actually damage
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 2d ago
Iran Guard says it attacked U.S.-linked vessels in retaliation for strikes
Iran's Revolutionary Guards said on Saturday that it had attacked several vessels, including ones allegedly linked to the United States, in retaliation for American strikes on Iranian tankers earlier today.
https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/iran-war-us-trump-diesel-gas-prices-labor-day/
6 vessels were targeted in total, (3 oil tankers and 3 vessels affiliated with America in other areas,) unconfirmed strikes or damage as of yet.
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u/itsatumbleweed 2d ago
I'm still waiting to see what the verdict here is. Waiting on confirmation.
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 2d ago
AJE: Iran lifts ban on using ‘non-native’ social media platforms for official information
In a statement to Iranian media, Pazuki said he wondered why the ban was there in the first place.
“Years ago, they had made a strange decision; they had issued a circular stating that no government agency or body had the right to provide information on non-native messaging platforms! What was the result? People, young people, and the media were reading news and rumours on international platforms, but government agencies were absent from the very places where people were present and were responding on another platform!” he wrote, according to the ISNA news agency
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Access to the internet remains heavily restricted for the majority of Iranians.
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u/HoustonHous 2d ago
Don't they often post on Twitter already?
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 2d ago
A few of them do, altho I haven't seen much since the 28th of Aug excepting MP Ghalibaf with the odd post perhaps. Communication is always welcomed.
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u/colepercy120 2d ago
The irgc is claiming to have targeted 6 tankers in the strait, has there been any reports of hits?
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u/Rustic_gan123 2d ago
There was a video that possibly consists of old footages and photos of the Iranian tanker ( allegedly) striked today by the US, which they claimed was foreign. But so far, nothing has been confirmed.
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u/colepercy120 2d ago
What about the reports of iran using a hypersonic missile? That sounds very far fetched
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u/Rustic_gan123 2d ago
Almost every ballistic missile can reach hypersonic speeds.
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u/Wermys 2d ago
Missiles going 3000+ MPH in a ballistic trajectory is nothing special. Hyersponic is way overused for what it is actually meant to be.
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u/Rustic_gan123 1d ago
The essence of modern ballistic hypersonics is primarily in the flight trajectory and not in the speed.
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u/colepercy120 2d ago
So the iranians are again trying to hit the ships, to me this is another sign of desperation. The fleet is well off the coast and moving, which makes targeting hard to do. Especially if these were the same missiles they've been using against bases (i dont know if someone has info on that please let me know) attacking small moving targets well off the coast practically requires an over the horizon radar system so they have atleast one of those still working.
But even if they managed to sink everything they targeted it still wouldnt break the blockade. Sinking a carrier would have been embarrassing for trump, we haven't lost any since ww2, but the blockade would still be effective, and the us would just shift to a longer range point and use more air power.
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u/punkasstubabitch 2d ago
Iran is not desperate at all. The US can only bear so much economic damage. Trump is a fool stumbling and his ego will not let him make any concessions.
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u/HomeworkOk990 2d ago
I think this is grossly underestimating how much the Iranians are playing the long game.
A) the US military can't provide escorts to ships forever - it's pricey,
B) traffic is still well below pre-war norms and this is having an impact on supply (yes there are some ships moving through on incognito mode),
C) I'm not convinced the Iranians want a massive escalation to galvanize the world and US public opinion further against them. Yes the war is extremely unpopular, but if Iran did actually hit an aircraft carrier, that would likely have the impact of at least partially galvanizing the American public behind the war effort, and relatedly,
D) the midterms. The Iranians are not dumb. Right now, the net impact of the war is record high diesel, near record high gasoline, and an extremely unpopular war effort - the holy trifecta if you want your opponent to be politically damaged. Why would the Iranians want to change that in the next 45 days?
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u/Nutmeg92 2d ago
What do the midterms change in practice? GOP is passing no legislation. Budget cannot pass without Dem votes anyway.
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u/Cryonaut555 2d ago
A) the US military can't provide escorts to ships forever - it's pricey,
Most aren't that pricey.
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u/Larcye 2d ago
D) the midterms. The Iranians are not dumb. Right now, the net impact of the war is record high diesel, near record high gasoline, and an extremely unpopular war effort - the holy trifecta if you want your opponent to be politically damaged. Why would the Iranians want to change that in the next 45 days?
If I was a betting man, Iran will do a massive attack 1-2 weeks before the mid terms, probably take out a lot of gulf oil infrastructure. Then when the polls open and gas is at $5+ a gallon(In my area it's at $3.70ish currently), the GOP basically gets annihilated in the mid terms. They did it before to Carter, I'd bet money they will be doing it again. Wouldn't surprise me if they have been hoarding tons of missiles and launchers for such an attack.
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u/punkasstubabitch 2d ago
The White House is desperate and they will say anything as a last ditch effort to keep oil prices down.
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u/stayfrosty 2d ago
I don't think the long game benefits the Iranians. Our economy hasn't even been effected. Their economy is basically strangled. We can easily go two more years of this with no significant effect. We waged much more expensive wars in Afghanistan and Iraq simultaneously over 20 years and it didn't effect our economy.
You think Iran can survive two years without being able to export oil?
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u/cheddarben 2d ago
We can easily go two more years of this with no significant effect.
Two months will be all it takes to fundamentally change the arena.
Our economy hasn't even been effected.
Not like Iran, but you bet your bottom dollar our economy has been impacted. Been to a gas station? I drove by corn fields the other day and they are looking really, really sad for this time of year. Some of that may be water issues, but I bet some of it is fertilizer.
We waged much more expensive wars in Afghanistan and Iraq simultaneously over 20 years and it didn't effect our economy.
What? Have you seen our debt? If you don't think those wars were put on a credit card, you haven't looked.
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u/colepercy120 2d ago
For A, its not as expensive as you think, the whole operation costs about 6 million a day, and that includes the blockade and export. Its small enough that it can be run indefinitely.
As for B, traffic is increasing over time, which means irans leverage is dropping over time. Iran can't stop the incognito transits and they are responding weaker and weaker.
C they have already galvanized most of the region against them, and like it or not the only people who can directly affect the outcome here are the belligerents no one else outside the region has the capacity to play a direct role.
D the midterms are irans best opportunity to make a deal, they arent waiting for them to pass, its the deadline. Once the midterms are over trump is untethered to public opinion and a lame duck, that will definitely cause some problems unrelated to the war, but it means iran wont have this much leverage again until 2028
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u/Movie_Slug 2d ago
Why do you think they stopped hitting Arab infrastructure and instead going for bases and ships? It seemed like hitting the infrastructure was what got them the first ceasefire.
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u/Hamiltonblewit 2d ago
The cost of running a couple of destroyers and guiding ships in one Strait is not that much for the U.S and is completely sustainable at its current pace, the Vietnam war or Afghanistan was infinitely costlier and was held for 20 plus years without much issue
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u/colepercy120 2d ago
Yeah, so far this whole thing has cost about 1/6th as much as our Ukraine aid packages. We're not going to be reaching any financial limits any time soon
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u/goodreverenddoc2 2d ago
your 1/6 number is way off. hegseth testified in july that the iran war has cost $37.5 billion so far, and he’s asking congress for another $87.6 billion supplemental. that’s $125.1 billion total, for a war that’s about 5 months old.
total us aid to ukraine since 2022 (source: gao) is $174.2 billion, over more than 4 years.
125.1 / 174.2 = 72 percent, not 1/6. this war has burned through nearly three quarters of total ukraine funding in about a tenth of the time.
sources:
hegseth’s $37.5b testimony: https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2026/07/21/hegseth-estimates-iran-war-has-cost-375-billion-as/
$87.6b supplemental: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/senators-grilled-hegseth-on-iran-here-are-3-big-moments-from-the-hearing
ukraine total: https://www.gao.gov/products/gao-24-107232•
u/Born-Procedure-5908 2d ago
But doesn’t that account for literally all of the bases and enormous missile fire within the first few months.
It’s not remotely comparable to this stalemate where U.S ships are guiding oil vessels
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u/HomeworkOk990 2d ago
Yes - it is as expensive as we think. It's literally being reported daily and it's a hell of lot more than 6M/day when you consider sorties, food, diesel (lol), etc. Not sure where your number came from.
Iran's leverage in comparison to what? You do realize that the war was initially about a nuclear program and now it's about opening a straight that was previously open before the war. If anything the fact that we are talking about the straight of hormuz at all means that Iran still retains plenty of leverage.
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u/colepercy120 2d ago
The daily operation cost for the deployed fleet is somewhere between 5 and 15 million usd a day based avaliable estimates. That includes active combat operations. Even if you take a look at the worst case for the entire war so far (around 37.5 billion usd) and average it out for a per day cost you get 20 million a day. Which while larger is still not very expensive. And that 20 million is for all the active bombings and offensive war to, not just the blockade.
In exchange the blockade is costing Iran 500 million usd a day, iran already started out with a much weaker economy and strained budgets. The blockade is costing them 33 times as much as its costing us.
As for what im comparing leverage to, im using their peak, before the us had a system to escort ships through, when the mou was signed. That was when irans negotiating power was strongest. Now they're alot worse off. They've lost their proxies, they've lost most of their government, they've lost the entire navy and air branch of their military, theyve lost their oil revenue, and theyve lost acess to foreign trade almost entirely. the only thing they gained in the war was the strait, which they now have lost as well.
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 2d ago
I mean, when you word it like that... Damn. That's a lot to lose. Do you think there is more Iran stands to lose the longer this goes on?
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u/goodreverenddoc2 2d ago edited 2d ago
idk where that guy is getting his numbers from. the $5-15 million figure might be the cost of running one destroyer or one carrier, but there are way more assets in the region than that. centcom’s own public numbers put it at 10,000+ troops, over a dozen warships, and dozens of aircraft enforcing the blockade.
even his own math doesn’t make sense. the war started feb 28, 2026. hegseth gave his $37.5 billion cost estimate on july 21, 2026, that’s 143 days in. $37.5 billion / 143 days = $262 million a day.
and that $37.5 billion doesn’t even include the new $87.6 billion supplemental hegseth asked congress for on top of it. as of today (sept 5), the war is 189 days in. even using the full $125.1 billion total against today’s day count, that’s still about $662 million a day.
sources: hegseth’s $37.5b testimony: https://www.boston.com/news/politics/2026/07/21/hegseth-estimates-iran-war-has-cost-375-billion-as/
$87.6b supplemental: https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politics/senators-grilled-hegseth-on-iran-here-are-3-big-moments-from-the-hearing
centcom blockade force size (10k troops, dozen+ warships): https://freebeacon.com/?p=2130067•
u/PostAboveMeSucks 2d ago
It's estimated 1 billion dollars a day
As for what im comparing leverage to, im using their peak, before the us had a system to escort ships through, when the mou was signed. That was when irans negotiating power was strongest. Now they're alot worse off. They've lost their proxies, they've lost most of their government, they've lost the entire navy and air branch of their military, theyve lost their oil revenue, and theyve lost acess to foreign trade almost entirely. the only thing they gained in the war was the strait, which they now have lost as well.
Doesn't take away from this tho.
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u/Rustic_gan123 2d ago
the US military can't provide escorts to ships forever - it's pricey,
The blockade and war are also expensive to Iran.
traffic is still well below pre-war norms and this is having an impact on supply (yes there are some ships moving through on incognito mode),
the midterms. The Iranians are not dumb. Right now, the net impact of the war is record high diesel, near record high gasoline, and an extremely unpopular war effort - the holy trifecta if you want your opponent to be politically damaged. Why would the Iranians want to change that in the next 45 days?
They are dump if they think that a Dems victory will help them.
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u/DarkReignRecruiter 2d ago
They want to establish deterrence for a future rerun.
The party who attacked them loosing heavily because of an attack on them will help with that.
They are not as dumb as was portrayed before the war. Them capitulating now is the one thing that could save the Republicans and no way would they want that.
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u/Rustic_gan123 2d ago edited 2d ago
They want to establish deterrence for a future rerun.
The party who attacked them loosing heavily because of an attack on them will help with that.
The threat to the Strait is a short lived deterrent as alternative routes will develop
They are not as dumb as was portrayed before the war.
I consider them dump, because until now they have continued the strategy of proxy wars in the region, and if Iran does not abandon this, a new war will be inevitable, and any agreement will be unviable.
Them capitulating now is the one thing that could save the Republicans and no way would they want that.
There is no longer any physical time to conclude any deal before the elections, much less guarantee that the "capitulation" will be carried out after the elections. I think they have already resigned themselves to the fact that the elections will take place against the backdrop of a war with Iran.
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u/DarkReignRecruiter 2d ago
"The threat to the Strait is a short lived deterrent as alternative routes will develop" that is the one reason they won't actually capitulate on nuclear very easily.
Making this attack on them costly will set a precedent however. It was assumed for 40 years that attacking Iran was not worth it and right now Trump is proving that theory correct.
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u/Rustic_gan123 2d ago
Making this attack on them costly will set a precedent however. It was assumed for 40 years that attacking Iran was not worth it and right now Trump is proving that theory correct.
So what's to stop them from tearing up the deal at the first opportunity, reinstating sanctions, and not fulfilling their obligations? The best deterrent is a deal that no one wants to break. Israel, for example, might find it cheaper to attack Iran while it's still recovering than to deal with a wealthier Iran later. The US position is similar: why honor a deal that, if Iran continues its proxy wars, will later escalate into a US war with a wealthier Iran? It would be much cheaper to keep them in poverty and wait until the regime outlives its usefulness
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u/Rustic_gan123 2d ago
If the US didn't use missile defense, it means they were confident the missiles wouldn't hit and had sufficient evasive maneuvers. Since they then struck three tankers, they likely knew the attacks were real and not warning shots. If so, Iran has problems targeting the ships.
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u/colepercy120 2d ago
Yeah, ships are very hard targets and iran seems to only be able to hit ships that are broadcasting their location by transponder. Theres a reason they haven't tried this before, and it isn't lack of desire.
The response is also interesting, shadow fleet tankers are by nature old and not well maintained, so any hits probably totaled them. But by going after them we are limiting irans ability to export oil even after a peace deal. Those ships dont come cheap, and they dont come fast, if the us takes them all out than iran is screwed long term
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u/topdownyeti 2d ago
Just saw a TikTok of someone saying that they expect escalation this weekend due to someone buying 3000 oil futures contracts right before the market closed yesterday. However, wouldn’t there be a lot of strikes happening if that were true?
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u/UsefulStooge 2d ago
That is ~10% of what gets traded every minute on Brent futures. It is a very normal sized institutional order that happens many times every day. Not big enough to move the needle, and nothing to read into.
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u/joshtaco 2d ago
UKMTO: Now reporting that several merchant vessels have been hit by "disabling fire" in both the Northern Arabian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman
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u/joshtaco 2d ago
National Iranian Oil Company: All debris removed from refineries at Iran’s South Pars gasfield months after strikes
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u/joshtaco 2d ago
US Embassy in Bahrain: Urges US citizens to "exercise heightened vigilance" “The US Embassy reminds American citizens that Iran has previously targeted civilian infrastructure in Bahrain, including hotels in Manama,”
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u/joshtaco 2d ago
CENTCOM: A U.S. aircraft carrier and guided-missile destroyer successfully evaded multiple unprovoked Iranian attacks.
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u/GandalfSwagOff 2d ago
I feel like in a war you can't have unprovoked attacks. That is a weird adjective to use.
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u/SpitefulSeagull 2d ago
"unprovoked"????
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u/asetniop 2d ago
"We're all looking for the guys who started this." - Admiral Brad Cooper, while wearing a hot dog costume
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u/Special-Reaction2029 2d ago
So how much damage did they actually take?
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u/IsTom 2d ago
I guess CIWS should handle drones and I don't think it's particularly easy to hit a moving ship with ballistic missiles, so attacking ships themselves seems a bit futile.
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u/Fenris_uy 2d ago
Depends on the precision of the ballistic missile, what is the strike group doing and what information you have about it position.
If you expect the aircraft carrier to keep moving at 20knots in the same direction for the next 20 minutes, you could calculate where it's going to be an target that position. Or if you know that they always move in the same zig zag pattern.
But neither Iran or it's partners have precise location information about the position of the aircraft carriers. And their missiles aren't that precise to be able to calculate the exact impact location.
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u/UsefulStooge 2d ago
I’d wager zero. If Iran had hit a US Navy ship, the retaliation would have been far more than a few tankers.
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u/jews4beer 2d ago
Not to mention the IRGC would be screaming it from the roof tops and it would start popping up on OSINT channels.
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u/joshtaco 2d ago
Yemeni military: Yemen clashes kill more than 60 people from both sides on Saturday
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u/joshtaco 2d ago
NYT: The Trump administration Pentagon investigators have subjected roughly 50 members of the US military’s Joint Staff to polygraph tests over leaks to journalists, including about how the Iran war has created a shortage of crucial munitions.
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u/joshtaco 2d ago
Gas Buddy: US gas prices will hit an all-time high for Labor Day at $4.03 a gallon on average
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u/itsatumbleweed 2d ago edited 2d ago
Per Al-Jazeera:
An Iranian oil tanker off Kharg island has been hit by several US missiles, Iranian media reports.
Edit: CentCom confirmed that it was actually 3 tankers in response to Iran attacking two US Warships
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 2d ago
Eerily quiet on statements from Iranian officials in media or on socials for almost a week now.
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u/barsik_ 3d ago
IDF strikes Hezbollah targets in Lebanon after Israeli soldiers intercept drone attack
The strikes follow an announcement by Defense Minister Israel Katz earlier on Friday that the IDF had cleared Lebanon's Ali al-Taher ridge tunnels of Hezbollah terrorists.
https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/defense-news/article-907612
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u/PostAboveMeSucks 3d ago
Qatar rejects Iran’s claims, reaffirms right to self-defence and compensation at UN
The State of Qatar has sent two identical letters to Secretary-General of the United Nations...
The letters pointed out that Resolution 2817 (2026) also condemned the attack on residential areas and the targeting of civilian objects, and that the attacks caused civilian casualties and damage to civilian buildings, and the resolution called on the Islamic Republic of Iran to fully comply with its obligations under international law, including international humanitarian law, particularly about the protection of civilians and civilian objects during armed conflicts.
The letters affirmed that these internationally unlawful acts committed by the Islamic Republic of Iran entail its international responsibility and oblige it, as appropriate, to provide full compensation for all damages and losses incurred by the State of Qatar as a result of these acts. This position is further reinforced by Human Rights Council Resolution 61/1, which demanded that the Islamic Republic of Iran provide full, effective, and immediate compensation for the damages and injuries resulting from its attacks against states, including the State of Qatar.
The letters indicated that the State of Qatar is still engaged in assessing and documenting the damages and losses resulting from those acts and reserves all its rights in this regard. Based on the foregoing, the Islamic Republic of Iran's attempts to evade its responsibility through the alleged demand that the State of Qatar provide compensation amount to nothing more than an attempt to shift the actual responsibility, and it lacks any valid basis.
The letters renewed the State of Qatar's affirmation of the necessity for the Islamic Republic of Iran to respect freedom of international navigation in the Strait of Hormuz as a well-established rule in customary and conventional international law that admits no compromise, and to refrain from using it as a bargaining chip. Accordingly, the State of Qatar rejects what was stated in the letter from the Chargé d'Affaires ad interim of the Permanent Mission of the Islamic Republic of Iran regarding Iran's claims concerning the Strait of Hormuz, to rely on them in support of its unlawful acts related to obstructing legitimate international navigation or threatening or attacking commercial ships, and its claim of self-defense. Security Council Resolution 2817 (2026) explicitly affirmed the obligation to respect the exercise by transport and commercial ships of navigational rights and freedoms in accordance with international law, and the right of states to defend their ships against attacks in accordance with international law.
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u/topdownyeti 3d ago
So is the US no longer going to retaliate against Iran? I’m surprised I haven’t seen anything about the missiles Iran sent to Jordan today
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u/itsatumbleweed 2d ago
Looks like it was just on a delay. They hit 3 Iranian ships since you posted this.
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u/Cactusfan86 3d ago
It’s the smart play, the slow simmer favors the US, things getting hot again favors Iran
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u/The-ArtfulDodger 1d ago
You really think a prolonged deployment of that many military assets favors the US? The US is hemorrhaging money.
Iran wants to drag this out.
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u/Cactusfan86 1d ago
Things getting hot doesn’t necessarily mean they get over with faster, if anything it just means the money bleeds out even faster
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u/Diane_Horseman 2d ago
so knowing now that they actually did retaliate, would you say they're doing a dumb play?
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u/colepercy120 3d ago
There might be something later, but the us strategy currently seems to be blockade and swat anything that looks like it could be a threat, if the missiles today weren't that major they could just ignore them knowing the blockade does more damage than anything less than a full ground invasion
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u/Born-Procedure-5908 3d ago
I’m not even sure about the scope of the missile launches since it appears it didn’t do much? Regardless, Trump does not want to escalate until post midterms, that much is clear
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u/colepercy120 3d ago
So how much longer do we expect this to go on?
Heres the info ive been seeing
- Irans announced they will start launching "offensive strikes" but either they haven't done so yet or the amount is small enough that its not making the news.
- the us blockade remains in place and is reportedly very effective and has essentially bottled up irans exports while strangling their economy and imports
- the US and Isreal have been ignoring Iranian red lines for months now with diminishing retaliation from iran.
- estimated hormuz oil transits are around 15-18 million barrels per day as of early September. In around 22 ships according to official numbers, most of it is running dark to avoid giving iran targeting info which makes this hard to independently verify. But if its anywhere near as much as Washington is saying than iran does not have control of the strait.
To me this indicates that the stalemate is slowly diminishing Iranian capabilities and control while hurting them at home. Which begs the question, how long does this last? If trend lines continue Iranian negotiating power will continue to drop relative to the us.
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u/Lordvalcon 3d ago edited 3d ago
Realistically nothing's major is going to happen until after midterms on either side.
But the math has not changed all the facts are still the same. The only way this ends is with a major escalation from the US or for Trump to concede and go home. Unfortunately the best deal the US is ever going to get was the original memo understanding. Which was untenable. I just don't see how the us or Trump can ever agree to give Iran 300 billion and they're going to want more the second time. The other side of it is that no one can ever trust to deal with Trump so the Iranians have no incentive to make a deal with him since the last two times they tried he killed all the negotiating team. So once again only way this ends is with a large escalation ie boots on the ground in Iran which could be a 2 to 10 year process. Or Trump able to hold the biggest L ever diminish the US on the world stage and Empower Iran to become the 5th Central of world power. So long and short of it is likely this will be going on after Trump is done his term
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u/colepercy120 3d ago
Im not sure the midterms are really going to do much on this issue, I think its more likely a democratic congress will be even less likely than a republican one to accept a bad deal.
And why do you think Iran's leverage has increased? They have been firing less and less, strait traffic is up while the number of ships that were attacked is down. There have been atleast so reports of Iran using search light equipped speedboat because they have run out of radar. The longer the war goes on the weaker the Iranian possition is. That's why the earlier mou was so generous to them, it was the peak of their power, without a major defeat for the us blockade the iranians seem unlikely to attain a military victory, and they have no chance at all of achieving an economic victory
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u/The-ArtfulDodger 1d ago
They have been firing less and less
Dumpy is currently conducting a very expensive show of force, as he's trying to nip this in the bud before election time.
Iran isn't going to expend resources while the US military has that level of deployment. It knows it doesn't have to respond immediately and that the most effective play is to drag this out as long as possible.
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u/Lordvalcon 3d ago
It's more just that we're going to be in the continued stalemate until after the midterms because Trump has no interest in escalating before then since it will only cost them. And Iran won't make any deals until after the midterms because they have access to our media and they've seen many people from the administration come out and say that as soon as midterms are over they're going to go and attack Iran full out again
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u/colepercy120 3d ago
That makes sense, though the midterms are going to be done in about 2 months, though im not sure how long iran can really hold out beyond that. The regieme is running out funds and leverage. Once the midterms are over trump is essentially a lame duck, he'll have an unfriendly congress that wont sign off on any surrender terms, and since hes not running for reelection he wont responsive to public pressure
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u/Lordvalcon 3d ago
They can hold out for a long time they don't have to be responsive to their populace at all they can let Millions starve if they want. They're also being restocked with drones from China and Russia. Even if we were able to destroy 99% of their drones. Because of the geographical advantage they have over the Strait of Hormuz they would still be able to stop shipping from getting anywhere near it's pre-war levels.
I guess it's possible that we could open it for a few months but without actual regime change or some sort of deal there's no stopping Iran from rearming and then shutting it down for another 6 months at any point in the future. Also all of this is ignoring the nuclear problem.
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u/colepercy120 3d ago
Im not sure they can get resupply from russia and China right now, they are facing severe gas shortages (and so is russia) which makes any overland transit hard, and the iran China railway corridor is extremely limited.
While the Regieme isnt responsive to its people that doesnt mean it isnt immune to the effects of not paying its army. They are being starved for food and funds, making a famine pretty likely in the mid range, and they have already shifted to a bounty system for paying their troops. If they can't break the blockade soon they will be facing mass dessertians as soliders prioritize eating over fighting.
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u/Lordvalcon 3d ago
I do think the best way for this to possibly add would be anInternal Revolution that overthrows the regime. And I hope that does happen I'm just not sure that it's very likely we're dealing with religious fundamentalists here not rational actors. But hopefully the CIA does have some sort of hand-picked member of the regime that can come in and fill some sort of power vacuum if a revolution does take place. One thing to keep in mind is that the regime is about 300,000 people who all also have families so it's really more like 1.8 million people ish are in the elite of the Iranian regime. So we're talking about about a million of them would need to die and some sort of revolution in order for actual regime change to take place. And honestly even if something like that did happen they would most likely need to be some us boots on the ground to help facilitate the new government
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u/colepercy120 3d ago
That assumes everyone in the regime is a full on ideological diehard. I find it hard to believe that a significant portion if not the outright majority if the men running the show on the ground are in it for the status power and money. Iran has starved their private sector for decades so the government is one of the few places to work.
Imo its far more likely for the leadership to lose control of the middle management and lower levels who then overthrow the government with the help of the regular army, prioritizing their own survival and possition over the great struggle
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u/ChupacabraJeff 3d ago
There have been atleast so reports of Iran using search light equipped speedboat because they have run out of radar.
Who makes radar that can read letters on the hull of a boat?
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u/colepercy120 3d ago
Given iran is targeting all ships transiting the gulf, they arent sending boats across the strait to validate identities. These reports combined with the limited number of hits reported recently, despite the massively increased volume of traffic indicate to me that iran is either having a hard time finding ships or has lost the capability to hit as many
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u/ChupacabraJeff 3d ago
they arent sending boats across the strait to validate identities
Seems like they are. How do you think Iran created that blacklist?
The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has deployed special forces along Iran’s Persian Gulf coast to identify in advance vessels using the Oman-side route through the Strait of Hormuz, sources familiar with the matter told Iran International.
The IRGC operatives are also seeking access, through Omani sources, to the schedules and coordination details of ships passing through the southern route of the Strait of Hormuz, the sources said.
The special forces deployed by the IRGC are equipped with various intelligence-gathering systems, including land-based observation posts, naval equipment and aerial systems, and have recently been tasked with identifying in advance any vessel intending to pass through the southern route and issuing warnings about it, the sources said.
The sources also say that IRGC operatives are extensively gathering information from Omani sources and agents to learn ahead of time about the coordination and schedules of ship movements through the southern route and receive related alerts.
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u/colepercy120 3d ago
If they know where the ships are than why have they stopped shooting at them? Every ship america gets through weakens their leverage. They're best hope at a deal is to exploit the midterms, after that it will be 2 more years before another american election and trump wont be responsive to political pressure any more.
Its far easier to believe they current cant stop the us escort than they are choosing not to.
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u/0x476c6f776965 1h ago
AlJazeera: Saudi Arabia has accused Yemen’s Houthi rebels of launching attacks on civilian and economic sites in the kingdom, wounding at least 73 civilians, including women and children.
The accusation came on Tuesday as fighting intensified in Yemen, where the Saudi-backed, internationally recognised government has launched a counteroffensive to retake territory from the Iran-backed Houthis.
Major-General Turki al-Maliki, the spokesman for the Saudi-led coalition fighting in Yemen, said in a statement that the Houthi attacks had hit civilian and economic sites in the provinces of Abha, Khamis Mushait, Jizan and Najran.
He did not specify when the attacks took place.
Al-Maliki described the attacks as a “dangerous escalation” and a “blatant violation” of Saudi Arabia’s sovereignty, warning that they posed a direct threat to the kingdom’s citizens and residents.