r/progun • u/ammodotcom • 11d ago

Chicago Homicide Rate: 2026 Analysis

Report Highlights

  • Chicago has a higher homicide rate than comparably large cities. Of the 11 most populous U.S. cities (over 1 million people), Chicago consistently has the highest homicide rate.
  • Chicago’s yearly average murder rate from 2019 to 2025 was 23.32 per 100,000 residents (excluding justifiable homicide and involuntary manslaughter).
  • 63.6% of Chicago’s neighborhoods (49 of 77) had homicide rates above the national average between October 2024 and 2025.
  • Chicago’s homicide rate declined by 7.95% in 2024: much less than in other cities.

Read our full report on Ammo.com

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34 comments sorted by

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u/HybridP365 11d ago

aLl tHoSe gUns COmE fRoM iNdiAnA

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u/jtf71 10d ago

I get your point.

But to add real data....looking at the ATF Gun Trace Data report from 2024 (latest available) the top source state for guns recovered in IL is still...IL at 10,149. Indiana is second but far behind at 2,947.

And the majority of guns (10,837) have a "time-to-crime" of 3 years and over. That means that most guns recovered from crimes were sold at retail at least three years prior to being recovered at a crime scene/identified as having been used in a crime.

The problem isn't guns from Indiana. The problem isn't even guns. The problem is that in IL/Chicago they won't actually lock up known criminals. But then we've known that to be the problem for a long time - but the politicians don't want to lock up a substantial portion of their base.

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u/Gas_Grass_Ass_Class 10d ago

I get your point.

But do you think gun crime perpetrators are voters?

Not to totally dismiss what you’re saying, but I’d love to see some statistics that illustrate the voting habits of people who commit gun crime. If I had to guess, there isn’t a lot of crossover.

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u/jtf71 10d ago

This study, which is old, suggests that between 20.5% and 38% of convicted felons would turn out to vote. And that 70% of them would vote Democrat.

I doubt there is data specifically on those who commit gun crimes.

While I'm not finding a lot of actual studies, and some I find are behind pay walls, there are many other "surveys" on the topic of the voting habits of felons.

What is clear though is that both the GOP and the Dems believe that restoring voting rights to felons will benefit the Democrats. What data/studies/surveys they're using is unclear, but they've held these positions for so long that it is likely to be true as they do a lot of data research and if they found they were wrong they would pivot.

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u/HybridP365 10d ago

I'm not sure if you're aware, but the cOmIc StYle fOnT generally conveys sarcasm. 

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u/jtf71 10d ago

Very aware. Hence my first sentence of "I get your point."

And I provided data to support your sarcastic point.

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u/Njaala 10d ago

*Wisconsin

They blamed us for COVID too, when we had near zero cases (in the north) until after memorial Day which coinsides with tourists coming up from Chicago.

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u/chriske22 10d ago

Well most likely they do but that isn’t the real issue

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u/Nemacolin 10d ago

Chicago has a fairly standard murder rate. But it is a large city and that produces a large body count. But in terms of actual danger, Wilmington Delaware, Baltimore Maryland, Saint Louis Missouri, and New Orleans Louisiana are all more dangerous than Chicago. But they are also smaller.

Chicago is not and has never been the most dangerous city in America. It is just the most dangerous city if you only count the largest cities. Almost as if you are looking for a certain answer.

Why do people get so focused on Chicago?

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u/ktmrider119z 10d ago

Because its a huge city that has been blue for a very long time in a state with now some of the worst (most restrictive) gun laws in the country. Yet they have nothing to show for it. Homicide rate continues on the same trendline it has for a long time now.

I also live in Illinois and my city has roughly double the violent crime rate according to FBI Table 8. Not that concerned day to day.

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u/Nemacolin 10d ago

All American cities have been blue for a very long time. You are not upset about blue cities. You are upset about cities and the people who live in them.

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u/ktmrider119z 10d ago

You just miss the rest of my comment there?

Im only upset about cities when they fuck with my rights as Chicago does.

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u/Nemacolin 9d ago

This you?

"Because its a huge city that has been blue for a very long time"

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u/ktmrider119z 9d ago edited 9d ago

Now quote the other 3/4 of my comment, lol

You would have a point if my comment stopped there, but it doesnt. That specific sentence doesnt even stop there.

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u/Nemacolin 9d ago

Enjoy your day.

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u/ktmrider119z 9d ago edited 9d ago

"Enjoy"

Enjoy what?

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u/Nemacolin 9d ago

Whatever you would like.

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u/ktmrider119z 8d ago

Whatever what? You arent making any sense

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u/ammodotcom 8d ago

Ten were shot this weekend in Chicago. Compared to peer cities with a population of one million or more, Chicago has far more shootings.

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u/Nemacolin 8d ago

Yes. Chicago leads the way if you only count the dozen-or-so US cities of over one million in population. But why would you possibly want to count only those cities? Well, I suppose you might want to limit the data set in order to get a certain result.

By the way, if you want to track Chicago homicides for some reason, be sure to readthis wonderful blog.