r/geopolitics • u/One-Emu-1103 • 1d ago
News German far-right set for big win in eastern state of Saxony-Anhalt - projections
https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cy4zejgz3z9o•
u/Playful-Muffin-1994 1d ago
It’s SPD and CDU’s own fault for not reforming their own values and formulating their own policies to issues a significant portion of the voters thinks are important.
Instead, SPD, CDU, and most other German parties, shames AFD and those who votes for it, while Germany is struggling not only with the impact from migration, but also a failing a pension scheme, slowing economy, old infrastructure, etc.
Germany should be an active, action-oriented leading country in the EU together with France (which is also politically defunct in its own way), but instead German mainstream parties continuously fail to take steps towards the policies that are desperately needed, not only for Germany’ sake, but for Europe.
I’m a Social Democrat (from Denmark), and I wouldn’t vote for AFD myself. But I understand the frustration and disappointment with SPD and CDU, and their inaction to obvious problems, that leads to voters looking to AFD to try something else.
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u/Zaigard 1d ago edited 1d ago
surely Segregated School Classes for Refugees, Banning LGBT Flags and Symbols in Schools, Dismantling Public Broadcasting and Resuming Russian Energy Imports & Lifting Sanctions, will make Germany grow 4% a year and solve all the problems of the poor states!
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u/Anonon_990 1d ago
I actually think the populist right having some influence can come back to bite them. Meloni is an exception. Usually they fail pretty quickly as their ridiculous policies flounder.
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u/manefa 1d ago
Meloni is kind of different to the other eu right parties who seem to act like a bloc to me.
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u/poopshooter69420 18h ago
She’s certainly not licking Trump and Putin’s boots like so many of these other neofascists.
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u/Mrsbrainfog 8h ago
My thoughts exactly. Hopefully, this can be a case study for everyone to see how empty and inconsistent their politics really are. The problems are real, but AfD is not the answer.
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u/Wide_Canary_9617 1d ago
Not saying I like those policies in the slightest but tbf you are only focusing on the policies that obviously have no impact. Also Russian gas if imported will definitely aid the economy.
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u/Zaigard 1d ago
Also Russian gas if imported will definitely aid the economy.
off course that would mean, either a peaceful Russia, or Germany being kicked of EU, what would be a catastrophic for the economy.
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u/Wide_Canary_9617 23h ago
Oh please, even if the EU had a legal mechanism to kick countries out (which they don’t) buying Russian gas is not going to leave them with much more than a few angry letters on the Chancellor’s desk.
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u/KalaiProvenheim 7h ago
Don’t forget implementing the same disastrous austerity policies that got Germany here in the first place! The AfD loves that!
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u/mediandude 1d ago
Why not have separate referendums on all those issues?
That way those issues would not polarize party politics so much any more.PS. On fossil fuels imports from Russia, Germany would be wise to ask opinion and permission also from other european countries.
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u/Additional-Line-5559 1d ago
Germany is struggling not only with the impact from migration, but also a failing a pension scheme, slowing economy, old infrastructure, etc.
But that's exactly why the German government can't do anything. The German population is simply too old which is why there is a failing pension system, slowing economy, and old infrastructure can only be upgraded when there's enough money to pay for things.
The only solution to stop the population from ageing is migration. But the public don't really like migration despite wanting the state to continue to provide services they expect. That's why it's been so hard for governments across the West. There are no easy solutions here.
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u/Apprehensive_Bee5387 1d ago
pardon me, but you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about. Most Germans have zero problems with qualified migrants who move to the country to work, and most would welcome them. But those are not the immigrants that have entered Germany since 2015, and if you walk around in German cities and towns on a weekday during normal working hours you will see tons of young men from certain countries lingering around all day, at best doing nothing, at worst causing lots of trouble.
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u/Horror_Ride9619 1d ago
This or at least the perception of it is one of the feeding grounds for AfD.
This share of people is small but their visibility is huge.•
u/Additional-Line-5559 1d ago
pardon me, but you have absolutely no idea what you are talking about. Most Germans have zero problems with qualified migrants who move to the country to work, and most would welcome them.
Pardon me but I absolutely do know what I'm talking about.
I spent a few years working at a government body where I studied the impact of an ageing population on the economy of various countries, where we worked on researching the impact of immigration etc.
But those are not the immigrants that have entered Germany since 2015, and if you walk around in German cities and towns on a weekday during normal working hours you will see tons of young men from certain countries lingering around all day, at best doing nothing, at worst causing lots of trouble.
3.8 million immigrants came to Germany from 2014 to 2026. Quit your nonsense.
Most of them came as either workers, EU citizens, or because they had family (husbands/wives) based in Germany.
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u/Apprehensive_Bee5387 22h ago edited 22h ago
As of December 31, 2024 there were officially 3.4 million recognized refugees living in Germany (this is a number that was published by the German government). This number does not even account for family members that refugees who have been granted refugee status or 'Duldung' are allowed to bring to Germany. So, please provide a source for your statement that "most" of the 3.8 million immigrants that you state came between 2014 to 2026 were workers, EU citizens or because they had German family.
I do not doubt that you spent time researching the impact of an ageing population on the economy. I also agree that the German population is aging. What is incorrect is the part where you state 'But the public don't really like migration despite wanting the state to continue to provide services they expect. That's why it's been so hard for governments across the West'.
Germans like migration when qualified and working individuals immigrate who want to become a positively contributing member of society. This is different from the majority of refugees the country has seen since 2015. You are mixing two very different kinds of 'immigrants' here, one group that is desired and welcomed by Germans, and the other group, who is - by now - deemed as problematic as unemployment and crime are disproportionally increased in this group.
Lastly, there are many things the German government could have done differently and their failure to listen to the concerns that were voiced by German society over the past 10 years is directly causing the rise of the AfD. They have made it incredibly difficult for qualified immigrants to legally move to Germany to work and live there, while allowing everyone who has crossed the border since 2015 and voiced the word 'Asyl' to stay indefinitely and live of welfare. It is no surpirse that a lot of Germans are incredibly fed up.
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u/Additional-Line-5559 21h ago
As of December 31, 2024 there were officially 3.4 million recognized refugees living in Germany (this is a number that was published by the German government). This number does not even account for family members that refugees who have been granted refugee status or 'Duldung' are allowed to bring to Germany. So, please provide a source for your statement that "most" of the 3.8 million immigrants that you state came between 2014 to 2026 were workers, EU citizens or because they had German family.
There are 14 million foreign citizens in Germany alone. 3.4 million is less than 30% of just those that are foreign-citizens (so people who hold non-German passports, first link for data in bold)
Once you include those who are naturalised but not originally German, the number jumps to 18 million people who are foreign-born. 3.4 million is less than 20% of all foreign-born individuals currently living in Germany. So yes, a tiny minority of people (second link in bold).
Foreign population by place of birth and selected citizenships - German Federal Statistical Office.
Record number of immigrants reside in EU in 2025 - InfoMigrants
"most" of the 3.8 million immigrants that you state came between 2014 to 2026 were workers, EU citizens or because they had German family.
It's in German but you can clearly see from 2015 to 2025, 'fluchtmigration' is outweighed by the other categories of immigration. It's actually more than 3.8 million immigrants who came to Germany from looking at the numbers and aside from 2015 and 2022, fluchtmigration is actually outweighed by EU migration and Erwebsmigration alone.
Migration – ein Überblick in Grafiken | Migration weltweit: Daten - Geschichte - Politik | bpb.de
I also agree that the German population is aging. What is incorrect is the part where you state 'But the public don't really like migration despite wanting the state to continue to provide services they expect. That's why it's been so hard for governments across the West'.
This isn't incorrect. Polling has been done across multiple countries that support that people want lower immigration even when it's highly skilled immigration. People often express that they support skilled immigration but that doesn't actually translate to political support for skilled immigration.
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u/Available_Usual_163 1d ago
Perhaps people wouldn't mind migration of qualified workers as much rather than just letting in mass amount of people from other cultures and values in, unfiltered and unchecked of their background.
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u/minuswhale 1d ago
Literally SPD and CDU are fumbling in the exact same style that the US Democratic Party did…
And that was literally how Trump got elected twice.
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u/Wizard_Enthusiast 1d ago
Everyone loves to blame the democrats while ignoring they did and have done very well in elections since Trump's rise except twice: both times when he was on the ballot. Even then, it was never TERRIBLE: Hillary won the popular vote and Kamala outperformed other incumbents around the world. I understand the urge to do this, but it really misses just how much of a personality-driven thing the right in america is and how uniquely set Trump was, as a celebrity who was already within republican party circles, to get a massive amount of media attention.
Democrats have never suffered a collapse. There isn't anywhere for them to collapse INTO, unlike mutli-party systems where someone can come in and sweep out their voters. This is also why republicans didn't collapse post 2008. Although we'll see, because the modern republican coalition is made up of an awful lot of people who otherwise would not vote and Trump's now disliked by them.
What's happening in Germany is that the center right is collapsing as right wing voters turn to the far right instead. This is happening all over europe, and it's sort of what happened to the republicans in the US from Nixon onwards: the party changed completely but the name didn't.
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u/Charlemagne2431 1d ago
It's like everywhere else - if people do not see and feel positive change, they will get upset and vote for whoever is an outside party promising lollipops and candy canes. The time for CDU/CSU and SPD to change their policies - and, more importantly, actually do stuff that positively impacts people's lives and not corporate pockets, - was a decade ago. Now we have to sit in this mess, and no matter how much logic or reason you use, people aren't turning away from the far-right. I am worried this is going to have to run its course, and that will be an abject disaster.
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u/mixxituk 1d ago
> Ethnic Germans who were born in Russia and their descendants are among the most fervent supporters of the far-right Alternative for Germany
Ironic considering russias war in ukraine was apparently against the far right nazis
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u/vonWitzleben 1d ago
Before ringing the alarm bells, people should know that it’s a state election in a really, really unimportant state. It’s 2 out of 83 million Germans.
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u/Tifoso89 1d ago
In two weeks there are elections in Berlin and Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, on the same day. In Berlin the AfD is polling around 20%. Which is far from a majority, but still significant. In Mecklenburg-Vorpommern they're the first party at around 35%
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u/vonWitzleben 1d ago
I have written off all East German states. They can vote for whoever they want.
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u/Tifoso89 1d ago
Only West Germany counts?
German states are represented in the Bundesrat, which legislates alongside the Bundestag. Are you sure who the East German states vote for is irrelevant?
Currently, AfD has 0 representation in the Bundesrat, because they're not a part of any state government. Should this change, they'll be there too
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u/MpiaCheese 1d ago
Do you think that attitude may have contributed to East Germany developing some less savory ideologies?
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u/AvidCyclist250 1d ago
I was there the whole time. I witnessed both sides. To answer your question: no. That attitude was there from day 1 when the states merged. Partially justified, mostly not.
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u/Auspectress 1d ago
Found the guy who has 0 geopolitical awareness and is the very reason why AfD is getting stronger. It's this entitlement "East Germany is worse" and "We Westerns are better". Yet 75%-80% of ALL AfD votes come from west Germany, not East... If you removed east from polls AfD still would be polling number one equally with CDU.
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u/vonWitzleben 1d ago
Imagine being dumb enough not to know what proportionality is. And yes, the West is better than the East by any conceivable metric, I'd even say we are better people.
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u/BackupChallenger 1d ago
I mean even if it is a smaller region, this could be an sign of things to come. Is there any indication that the increase in AfD is unique for this region / why it shouldn't happen in other regions?
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u/vonWitzleben 1d ago
It’s East Germany, they will all vote far-right in the foreseeable future. So yes, it is a sign of things to come but none of those things are surprises.
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u/One-Emu-1103 1d ago
It sounds like the former East Germany has a lot in common with the American Deep South.
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u/IncidentalIncidence 1d ago
not really, they have a lot more in common with the rust belt and particularly West Virginia, in the sense that they used to be strongholds for the labor unions and were largely left-leaning for decades, and moved to the far-right as a result of deindustrialization decimating the labor unions.
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u/Sufficient_Meet6836 1d ago edited 20h ago
The "economic anxiety" (a name for what you describe in your comment) explanation for right wing voting has been debunked over and over again. There are much stronger predictors for right wing voting
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u/IncidentalIncidence 1d ago
you'll note that I didn't say anything about economic anxiety....
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u/Sufficient_Meet6836 21h ago
"Economic anxiety" is just shorthand for what you are describing
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u/IncidentalIncidence 3h ago
I mean it's not, words have meanings in the English language and "economic anxiety" describes a separate phenomenon. Which can be related, but I used the words I used for a reason, which was that I wasn't describing economic anxiety, I was describing widespread deindustrialization and the decline of the labor unions.
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1d ago edited 1d ago
[deleted]
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u/vonWitzleben 1d ago
It's a chicken egg situation where East Germans behave the way they do, then West Germans look down on them for it, which causes East Germans to behave the way they do.
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u/IncidentalIncidence 1d ago
Being under authoritarian far left rule has shifted the populaces mentality to the authoritarian far right which is a phenomenon that happens too frequently.
You have no idea what you are talking about, die Linke was the most powerful party in Eastern Germany until ~2017. The rise of the far-right there is very much a recent phenomenon.
There are definitely some discussions to be had about the legacy of the DDR and the reunification, but the claim that Eastern Germany has always voted right-wing as a direct reaction to the DDR is just patently false.
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u/TheGoldenLance 1d ago
It’s because they weren’t reeducated by the U.S. The places that were don’t vote for AfD but they all voted the same way in 1932
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u/sciguy52 1d ago
You mean they are growing fast economically and everybody is moving there?
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u/One-Emu-1103 1d ago edited 1d ago
It has the highest rate of poverty in the US and the worst public education in the country if that's what you mean. And people are leaving in droves from places that experienced that specifically Florida. Among other things it turned into an uninsurable hell hole. The other places like Louisiana, Mississippi, Arkansas, Alabama et al are full of proud religious people who lack education but has "Country Smarts."
The ones full of the true love of Christ are to be uplifted and celebrated as they are so few and far between.
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u/Asleep-Waltz2681 1d ago
No, they have little in common.
The memory of an authoritarian regime is very fresh in the minds of many people in East Germany. They and their parents knew what it was like to live under communism and seeing where the current government is heading they DO NOT want another DDR. The "far right" term is also not very fitting here. AFD represents what the CDU and many other parties of the center were 20 years ago. The only reason it could be considered right is because every other party has drifted so much to the left there is actually no more center.
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u/IsacG 1d ago
That's plain wrong. The Afd is far right to it's core. It's even an understatement. They are so far right that the other far right parties in Europe refuse to work with them. Another DDR? What are you even talking about?
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u/Asleep-Waltz2681 1d ago
Is that what the newspapers told you to think?
Reading this utter nonesense I can say with certainty that you haven't read their election program and are simply regurgitating media points.
What are you even talking about?
I can tell you what I'm on about. In the recent years research showed that freedom of speech went significantly down, journalism has become much worse and the state became more intrusive and authoritarian. For example, not too long ago a new law came into force that put politicians into a group which gave them special protection from criticism. There was a case where someone called Merz Pinocchio on Facebook and got sued. Another case was regarding calling Habeck a dimwit. There are also cases of journalists where the state has disallowed them from leaving the country or having a bank account. The previous government had discussions of reversal of the burder of proof for certain cases.
Those were just some examples but the list goes on and on. The state is without a doubt becoming more and more intrusive and authoritarian.
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u/IsacG 1d ago
And I can say with certainty, that you might have read the election program but have understood none of it even when it's written plain and simple.
But I think you know exactly what you are doing here and are arguing in bad faith. You know full well that the afd is far far right and that you are simply lying.
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u/Psychological-Flow55 1d ago
Actually many east Germans have nostalgia for the former DDR despite the stasi tyranny but they remember a more stable life a job to always go to decent standard of living and a expectation of what everyday life was like.
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u/experienced_enjoyer 1d ago
The difference is for the most part that:
Most the boomers/retirees (many of those) in West Germany vote for CDU/SPD, because they've always been voting for CDU/SPD. Because the east joined later, the boomers there don't have this traditional voting pattern of voting for the same guys no matter what, so more AFD votes there.
The east also has a inferiority complex and tends to vote more than average for the loudest anti-establishment populist party. Funnily it used to be the party "the left" before Afd came to rise. Horseshoe and all.
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u/One-Emu-1103 1d ago
This link could help explain things: A Far-Right Breakthrough? Germany’s AfD on the Brink of State-Level Governance
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u/kju 1d ago
Is there any indication that the increase in AfD is unique for this region / why it shouldn't happen in other regions?
Afd is already the most popular party in Germany, this is just the first election since becoming the most popular party. Afd was founded in 2013, it's increase in popularity has been very fast, but that's because there's been no other real right wing party in Germany
the union is the other one which is more of a centrist party, what do you think of merkel and merz? They were from the union party which is as far right as Germany went before afd.
Everyone should expect this to happen more in future elections and not just in Germany, pick countries in the West and look at their governments recent histories, and the current popularity of their countries parties, many of them have been making a move to the right.
There's no reason to expect this won't happen in other areas
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u/Tylerjb4 1d ago
These left governments have ruined Europe for the people who descend from there. Flooded with legal and illegal migrants, raping their daughters. Over promising pensions and social programs that will fail in short time. Weak economies outside of a few select countries due to lack of technical innovation.
I’m sure a lot of people will dig their heels in and disagree with the American, but I lived in Germany as a child, and travel to Europe a lot for work as an adult, and the difference is breathtaking.
I might a waitress in Birmingham and asked her where her accent was from. She told me she moved there from Italy looking for employment. In Spain, I was told not to wear my American company’s logo in public because of anger from the locals.
The left had so much promise, but they lost the plot and now it’s curtains. People want the Europe they grew up with.
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u/CatCatchingABird 1d ago
Honestly I don't care where it is or how many people are there. Downplaying and underestimating these kinds of movements has the potential to lead to much bigger future problems. Over ten years ago Trump was a joke. Nobody thought he would get past the primary. I get that we can't exactly equate AfD to MAGA, but my point is that you have to take this small win very seriously.
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u/TieVisible3422 1d ago
The downplaying of these movements is rooted in the downplaying of the grievances that produce them. Acknowledging those grievances would require taking them seriously—and potentially reconsidering settled beliefs. So they’re dismissed as misinformation, which is doubly insulting to people experiencing legitimate grievances. They’re told there is nothing to be aggrieved about while left-wing parties impose the same reactionary identity-politics games on people who just want to be left alone that they accuse the right of imposing.
Just recently, my own governor, Tim Walz, pardoned Tou Lue Vang, convicted of first-degree criminal sexual conduct involving a 10-year-old. When Vang was later deported, Walz asked, “Did that make us any safer? Did that make the children that are left behind any more stable? Did it improve the idea that we can’t all be judged by our worst day?”
This makes the contradiction difficult to ignore: you cannot credibly portray the far right as a threat to social stability while dismissing legitimate public-order concerns when they come from the left. Walz was considered for vice president, and he and two other top state officials approved this pardon. So it wasn't just him, the guy who was supposed to be VP, but his political party.
If someone convicted of this should not be deported, it becomes very difficult to explain who should be. Like actually, who should ever be deported if not a convicted child sex offender? Well, apparently nobody for whatever reason should ever be deported. That is the rational conclusion many people draw from these decisions. And then they vote accordingly.
Then those votes get blamed on “misinformation” (aka, your grievance is made up) rather than on the possibility that people are reacting to actual decisions made by actual governments.
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u/branchaver 1d ago
There's some pretty big context you're missing to that story. You can still make a case that he should have been deported but the fact he's lived in the US since he was 11, the crimes took place 20 years ago, and the woman he victimized has lobbied for him not to be deported does kinda change things a bit. When you tell the story like that it sounds like this was a recent arrival whom they had grabbed off the streets yesterday rather than someone who had lived their entire adult life in the US and had, by all accounts, been rehabilitated.
If you want to argue that none of this matters, he is still a sex criminal and the US needs to prioritize the safety of its citizens over all else, that's fine, but by omitting the details you make it sound like Tim Walz is absolutely batshit crazy when in reality his position is at the very least, defensible.
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u/TieVisible3422 1d ago edited 1d ago
Actually, you are missing even bigger context. Ramsey County prosecutors opposed the pardon and said the victim, then 12, had been under pressure from her family not to cooperate with the original investigation. And the perpetrator is married to the victim’s sister.
“We offered a dispositional departure in this case because the victim, then 12 years old, was experiencing pressure from her family to not cooperate.” - Tami McConkey, director of the Ramsey County Attorney’s Office’s Victim, Witness and Postconviction Justice Division.
It is very difficult to treat the victim’s forgiveness as dispositive given those circumstances. And even if her forgiveness was completely genuine and free from pressure, I cannot think of a case with a higher risk of reoffending than a household that tells the victim to be quiet, from a perpetrator that has kids with the victim's sister.
How are we supposed to know that the underlying behavior actually changed rather than simply becoming better concealed—or that the family dynamics that enabled the silence have changed at all? Since he got a plea deal and suspended sentence due to the original victim's pressure to not cooperate?
Given everything publicly known about this case, I still stand by what I said before: if someone with this history shouldn’t be deported, it becomes very difficult to explain who should ever be.
Maybe Tim Walz isn't batshit crazy, but the charitable interpretation is that he's still catastrophically negligent at his job. Even if we’re extremely charitable and assume the commission—not Walz personally—drove the pardon recommendation, which he ultimately approved, people are still going to blame him and his party for this. The entire pardon commission that recommended this pardon was appointed by Walz, and 2 other Democratic statewide officials. The pardon that all 3 of them voted to approve.
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u/AutumnRenegade 1d ago
As opposed to the entire Republican party that's currently the reigning champion of protecting the child touchers in the Epstein files and has a well documented history of defending predators and rapists in the name of religion and racism?
Don't try to use "but they needed to deport him or people are doing to lean Right" when the Right is just as busy with equally bad things. Hold them ALL accountable instead of trying to cherry pick.
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u/MindInTheCave999 1d ago
Why on earth are you defending a guy who repeatedly raped a 10 year old then married her sister? Truly bizarre
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u/TieVisible3422 22h ago
Never did I cherry-pick. I said that “Vote for us, otherwise the other side will do what we do too,” followed by “Why are voters so stupid that they didn’t care that the other side does what we do too?” is how you teach voters that nothing you say can be taken seriously. So they don't believe you when you tell them that these far-right parties are uniquely dangerous.
To them, you’re the boy who cried wolf. And the moral of the story wasn't that the boy was right, and the villagers were wrong. The moral was that the boy’s own behavior was the reason nobody believed him when the wolf finally showed up.
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u/Old_Stable_7686 1d ago
Literally a year ago everyone on reddit believed that there was 0 chance AfD would ever win anything. People in Berlin also notice the growing trend right now, albeit not strongly.
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u/vonWitzleben 1d ago
Is "nobody on reddit" a bunch of Americans or Brits who don't know shit? Because even your average German whose engagement with politics starts and ends with the Tagesschau could have told you three years ago that the AfD winning one or more state parliaments in the East was not only possible but even likely.
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u/Old_Stable_7686 1d ago
It was on r/askAGerman. Cant recall exactly which post but will dig it out again later. There were at least 100+ comments there, so I don't think all of the sudden a bunch of US/Brits coming into those threads are interested in such posts (but I got your point, it's valid lol).
"...average German whose engagement with politics" is definitely again an overstatement. I worked at a university in Bavaria before, none believed they would win anything (mind you, several people in the econ/political departments). I doubt that they are under the category of not knowing shit as you said. But what can I say, I'm not that in-depth in politics, but only the standard 'average' knowledge. There have been a lot of discussions these days at my place, including with the students. Like if CDU sux, AfD sux, SPD sux, who are you going with? Choosing the less suck, or going to the left, or green? This is not a funny matter anymore. If people that truly "know shit" can act, we would not be in this situation. I stand with my point that ringing the alarm bells is a good decision now.
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u/vonWitzleben 1d ago
I'm an SPD voter. Young people disliking the SPD is almost exclusively due to them not being educated and falling for slopulism. They see clips on TikTok that the SPD is enabling Merz or helping him or whatever, then mindlessly nod along because they don't know coalition politics or have already forgotten the results of the last election. It's depressing, really.
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u/absentlyric 1d ago
Educated or not, a vote is a vote. There's no IQ requirements to have a party win.
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u/Condurum 1d ago
There should be alarm bells. Don’t underplay the danger with cope.
I 100% believe anti-establishment propaganda and money authored by Russia and China focused on both left and right leaning people is to blame, but unless that’s not dismantled, the centrists should do something about their own social media abilities and policies.
These parties fundamentally rise because people stop trusting the centrists to be able to change things. Wether it’s on immigration or an objectively damaged economy. Russia and China are boosting these feelings.
If we get AfD, Reform and Le Pen in Europe, Ukraine might very well be lost (and in horror eradicated as a nation), and the Baltics would be next on the chopping board.
I think Merz is the best Germany can hope for now, but god he has a battle ahead. The moderate left should imo understand the extreme danger, that he’s the best option they have, and stop chipping away on CDU.
Just hand waving away 1/3rd of the populace is an awful attitude that won’t work. Remember how the democrats treated Trump. It just fires up their supporters, and political energy is extremely important in democracies.
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u/Immediate_Gain_9480 1d ago
Problem is also just that Germany and Europe in general s objectively in a shit situation. And this situation isnt going to be solved anytime soon even with fantastic competent leadership. Because its a result decisions made long ago and thr simple changing geopolitical and geo economical situation.
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u/sn00pal00p 1d ago
Merz and his cabinet are doing the chipping all on their own. He's the least approved of chancellor ever, and that's for a reason. He is not the hope against the far right, he's a giant contributor to their success.
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u/Condurum 1d ago
Scholz was a complete, utter disaster for Ukraine, and the last nuclear plants weren’t even extended in an energy crisis. Preferring coal.
The left is stuck in hopeless ideology unsuitable for the current situation where Germany badly needs competitive industry and cheap energy, that is not Russian gas.
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u/sn00pal00p 1d ago
I mean, I agree that Germany shouldn't depend on gas (especially Russian), but that's just another strike against Merz, whose hand-picked Minister for the Economy is literally a former gas lobbyist with her #1 policy being the construction of more gas plants.
I'm not sure what your point is.
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u/Condurum 1d ago
Because the alternative isn’t batteries, it’s more coal.
She wants to build LESS new gas power plants than Habeck wanted. It’s a completely left-manufactured problem.
Knee-jerk right hatred based on vibes and zero technical understanding.
If you don’t have backup power, Germany can literally blackout. Batteries can simply run out. And buying “enough batteries so that they can’t run out” is so insanely expensive that noe one serious thinks about it. It would literally be 100s of billions of Euros.
But sure, take some more coal my green friend.
You can of course just shut down most of your industry to save power too. But I suspect that’s not going to end well either.
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u/sn00pal00p 1d ago
She wants to build LESS new gas power plants than Habeck wanted.
That's a bit dishonest, no? Because I assume you're referring to the 23.8 GW Habeck wanted? 15 of those were conversions from existing plants, however, while Reiche wanted to build 20 GW of new plants before the EU said no. And according to a study (conducted by a business consulting firm), those 20 GW were entirely too much for exactly the function you're talking about (that I agree with in principle).
Taken together with her literally asking a giant energy corporation for arguments to deny batteries in favor of gas plants (among other very suspicious things), I'm not sure she's escaping the incompetent lobbyist accusations.
(Source)
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u/Condurum 1d ago
They proposed 20GW originally.
The forgetfullness of this fact is nearly systemic.
Especially mouthing dishonesty while doing so.
Fact is, you need capacity or you need coal. No batteries can tackle a dunkelflaute.
You can do «flexible demand» but I’d love to see the German factory answer when someone asks «can we have that part ready by Monday?»
And they have to look at the weather reports.
This is insanity
Up to 20 gigawatts of capacity are to be subsidized by 2030, which translates to roughly 40 newly constructed or modernized power plants in the 500-megawatt class.
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u/sn00pal00p 1d ago
They proposed 20GW originally.
Uh, yes, but the "they" in the article you're quoting is referring to Merz and Reiche. You'll see that they mention "the previous government" in the next sentence which refers to Habeck (and the 12.5 he settled on after the 23.8 I quoted above couldn't be financed):
Up to 20 gigawatts of capacity are to be subsidized by 2030, which translates to roughly 40 newly constructed or modernized power plants in the 500-megawatt class. The previous government had planned for 12,5 gigawatts plus 500 megawatts of long-term storage, as well as two gigawatts for modernizing existing gas-fired power plants for hydrogen use.
I'm not sure I'm following your argument here. Are you just agreeing with me? I gave that same 20 GW figure for Reiche in my previous comment.
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u/Condurum 1d ago
Yeah you’re right about the source, I was misled by Google about the date.
In any case, Habeck and Reiche both seems to have agreed at some point that around 20GW of gas capacity was needed to get rid of coal.
I’m not going to calculate who’s correct, but you do have 30GW of operational coal going on so.. and a week of batteries for just 10 of those is.. 1680GWh.
In mid 2026, German had around 30GWh of battery storage installed.
So tell me again how to replace coal.
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u/skratch 1d ago
Also a bigass propaganda boost from nazi-saluting Musk via twitter
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u/absentlyric 1d ago
So you are blaming Musk for this? Are you saying if he wasn't around then the voters would've never swung in this direction?
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u/mikksmix4 1d ago
Germany 1928: 810,000 votes for the Nazi party
Germany 1930: 6.4m votes for the Nazi party
Germany 1932: 13.7m votes for the Nazi partyI have no doubt people were saying similar in 1928 - it’s only 810,000 out of 64 million. History doesn’t repeat, but it does rhyme.
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u/mikksmix4 1d ago
I’ll admit that I’m not the most well-read on German electoral politics.
I am, however, very familiar with analysing trends and data and while my intention is not to scaremonger I believe dismissing an AfD victory in Germany in 2026 is ignorant as it does indeed set off some alarm bells.
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u/Pickles112358 1d ago
Fascism always came from either coups or socialism platform, so this isnt even similar
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u/Anonon_990 1d ago
Unfortunately every election won by far right groups gets made into a big deal. If this election was won by a centre left party, we'd never have heard of it. When Meloni won in Italy, Europe was apparently doomed.
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u/boogie_snot 1d ago
I would say OK sure if it was another country.
Like Canada has the People's Party of Canada, which is similar to AfD.
But this is Germany, and like y'know...
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u/jkeps 1d ago
People are upset that there are so many migrants who don’t assimilate in Germany. The AfD says they will deport them. It’s quite simple. I don’t buy the economic arguments for the rise of the AfD just like I don’t buy them for the rise of Trump. It all comes down to people hating that there are too many migrants and they want them gone.
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u/Repulsive-Honey7305 1d ago
There was an american news person/politicians who said something along the lines of "gee whiz, us on the left yelling at everyone and telling them they are stupid, racists and that their feelings are stupid and racists sidnt make them want to vote for us, imagine that.../s". Would that sentiment apply to Germany as well? Is your left full of self-righteous knownitballs?
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u/Leather-Meaning-4475 1d ago
Well.... The AfD branch in Saxony-Anhalt is officially classified as a confirmed right-wing extremist organisation.
The left party doesn't have to say it tbh
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u/Repulsive-Honey7305 1d ago
But clearly a bunch of random, formerly normal ppl voted for them. That's who I'm talking about. Not what does the left say about afd. How did the left treat those people? In the US people have concerns with varying degrees of legitimacy on a lot of social economic issues, but unless you embrace some way left of center positions you are considered racist, homophobic capital pigs. Truth is there is crime related to fairly porous borders, the existing immigration routes are absolutely cumbersome racist nonsense and some of the people who are in the US undocumented should be allowed to stay, and some should not. But if you try to discuss that without taking the position that we should have open borders, amnesty for all etc, you are apparently racist. If you think terrorism still exists and dont classify it as resistance...racist. if you think there are notable examples of government waste , and would like to stop that, capitalist pig. Its like....fine...if one side is going to ignore my relatively moderate concerns and tell me I am a bad person for having them I guess i will interact with the ppl who at least acknowledge the issues I want to talk about. As a life long liberal it's crazy to me that the conservatives are better at having reasoned conversations and the liberals are the ones shouting slogans like its the same as thinking, but here we are. So is that what happened in Germany? Not did the afd get yelled at, did the ppl who switched votes get yelled at enough to make them want to switch votes?
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u/Leather-Meaning-4475 1d ago
I think there is some truth to that. Legitimate concerns, especially about immigration, have sometimes been dismissed or moralised instead of properly discussed, and the AfD has been very successful at exploiting that.
But Germany isn't a two-party system. Being alienated by the left doesn't leave you with the AfD as your only alternative. There are plenty of other parties to vote for. So I think this can explain why some people initially became receptive to the AfD, but at some point voters also have to take responsibility for what they choose to support. Especially when the state branch they are voting for has been officially classified as right-wing extremist for years.
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u/Repulsive-Honey7305 1d ago
A more than two party system is a valid part of the analysis, thanks for bring it up. But are any of the center or left parties addressing the elephant in the room (immigrants) without moralizing? Reading other comments it sounds like sthe two majorncenter/left players are taking the same approach (if you dont agree with them you are racist)
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u/Leather-Meaning-4475 1d ago
The Left is very liberal on immigration, and the Greens are too, although even the Greens support controlled borders, faster asylum procedures and managed migration. But the CDU is a conservative centre-right party and has become considerably stricter on immigration. So you absolutely can vote for stricter immigration policies in Germany without voting for the AfD. The CDU and other parties' refusal to cooperate with the AfD isn't because they think wanting lower levels of immigration is inherently racist; it's because they draw a line at cooperating with the AfD, parts of which are classified as right-wing extremist.
Classified as right-wing extremist has a specific meaning in Germany. It isn't just a political label like calling a party ‘far right’. Germany has domestic intelligence agencies tasked with protecting the constitutional democratic order. A ‘confirmed right-wing extremist’ classification means the authorities have concluded, based on collected evidence, that the organisation pursues aims incompatible with fundamental principles of the constitutional order.
It does not mean the party is banned or illegal. It's an official intelligence classification, not simply a description used by political opponents
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u/Repulsive-Honey7305 1d ago
Yeah ok, some ppl in other comments said CDU wasnt shifting on some policies, I dont know if they said immigration specifically. I dont know, but it does seem that there is an element of reactionary extremist polarization then, if there is a viable not moralizing middle party. I am not jewish, but in the last few years jews have become my canary in the coal mine so to speak on how different parties will be treating ALL minorities (rather than just their approved minorities) so I am aware that AFD are ...not ok...to say the least.
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u/Leather-Meaning-4475 1d ago
It's always a matter of perspective and how you experience things. I think there's another distinction here: often it isn't the parties themselves that alienate people, but other voters.
For example, if I said that we should openly discuss problems related to immigration, I wouldn't expect an actual Green politician to immediately call me racist. But online, I might get six Green-leaning voters attacking me and calling my position racist. That's not the Green Party rejecting me, but socially I may still start associating that reaction with “the Greens”. I think that's part of how polarization works: people don't experience political parties only through their manifestos and politicians, but also through the people they associate with those parties.
Alice Weidel, one of the AfD's leaders, is herself a lesbian. She's in a long-term relationship with a woman of Sri Lankan origin who grew up in Switzerland, and they have two children. The party nevertheless has strongly socially conservative positions on LGBT and especially trans issues. But some supporters will point to Weidel and argue: “How can the AfD be homophobic when its leader is gay?” or “How can it be racist when her partner has Sri Lankan roots?”
I think that's part of the problem. At the end of the day, a lot of political discussion consists of voters attacking each other with stereotypes and hostility instead of actually listening to what the other person believes. Everything gets reduced to black and white.
Israel is another example. If I don't say “Israel is bad”, that doesn't mean I approve of what is happening in Gaza. But increasingly people seem to demand an explicit condemnation of one side before they're even willing to listen to the rest of your position. Nuance gets interpreted as secretly supporting the other camp. And that's not just a German issue
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u/Repulsive-Honey7305 23h ago
Yeah, thats my experience online as well. But In the us tho our left and even center politicians and political talking heads are increasingly the same way. The left lost an election they were expecting to win, tho everyone else knew they had no chance. They did some "internal analysis " and decided the reason was both Americans are racist sexist bigots but also somehow at the same time that they needed to court the far left. Made no sense to me. We lost bc people thought we were "too woke", so let's go "woker"? I mean i get not pandering and giving up core issues but they are now embracing extremists. Idk. Its just like the left in the US is spinning desperately, which given our 2 party system leaves a lot of us with no place to go. So when the right starts winning in the US dont take it to mean we all of a sudden are homophobic racist facists, its just more of a wtf else do i do moment. I guess Germany is lucky with having more options at least.
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u/Leather-Meaning-4475 18h ago
Yeah, I think that's probably one of the biggest differences. My first choice is actually a small animal welfare party, but depending on the election I sometimes vote for a larger party strategically because preventing an AfD majority matters more to me at that moment. I can do that without suddenly identifying with that party or agreeing with everything they stand for. And if I become unhappy with them, I still have several other democratic parties to choose from.
That's why I also don't automatically assume every AfD voter is racist, homophobic or fascist. People can vote for a party for very different reasons. I just think there's a point where the voter still has responsibility for what their vote empowers, especially when there are several alternatives available.
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u/Smodzilla 1d ago
Democracy wins!
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u/Horror_Ride9619 1d ago
Only as long as it stays democratic which will not happen with the AfD. The most radical right-wings of this country are in this party and the normal part will lose control sooner or later.
And from the parties claim they will only rule the state with a secured majority over 42 seats one can see how much they fear aspects of the democratic voting system when even the slightest discussion shall be avoided.
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u/One-Emu-1103 1d ago edited 1d ago
The country stands on the brink of its worst political crisis since the fall of the Berlin Wall.
The AfD displays the nativist and authoritarian tendencies of far-right extremist parties. As of late 2023, Saxony-Anhalt’s state chapter of the AfD is classified as “confirmed far-right extremist” by the State Office for the Protection of the Constitution. The AfD challenged an identical ruling for the national party last year, and the case is still pending in courts. Openly distinguishing between “biological Germans” and “passport Germans,” the AfD’s far-right nativism is by no means concealed.
Though just one of many far-right parties that have emerged across Europe in the 2010s, the rise of the AfD is followed with particular concern in Europe. This is because it is comparatively more extreme than other far-right European parties since it is gaining ground in the most powerful country in the European Union, and the very country that unleashed National Socialism onto Europe less than a century ago.
Their win in a singular German state will not be immediately felt across Europe, but the symbolic shock will be. Parts of Germany would be governed by a party openly sympathetic toward Russia and euphemistic about Germany’s darkest years.
Despite its success, the AfD has never been in government at either the state or national level, owing to a “firewall” among the other parties. Except for the populist, pro-Russian Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht, every significant party has ruled out forming a coalition with the AfD at either level—including the CDU and its sister party, the Christian Social Union (CSU), which have lost many voters to it. The only real chance at governing for the AfD is therefore through an absolute majority. In the case of Saxony-Anhalt, this now seems within reach this September: The German multiparty system could swing the result in the AfD’s favor in case several smaller parties miss the 5 percent vote threshold to enter parliament, which could turn even a low- to mid-40s vote share into an absolute majority of seats.
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u/Personal-Royal-1831 1d ago
Far right party in Germany.... when have I heard that before...
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u/One-Emu-1103 1d ago
I wonder who that could be. 🤔 certainly not this guy After all AfD figures have tried to reframe historical facts, such as a party head falsely claiming Adolf Hitler was a communist, which historians and media outlets like DW have debunked. https://www.dw.com/en/fact-check-afd-head-called-hitler-communist-he-was-not/a-71274756
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u/One-Emu-1103 1d ago
🤔 Their platform is reminecent of with a certain person who marched all over Europe and who tried to commit genocide against certain people he didn't like isn't it?
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u/Asleep-Waltz2681 1d ago
To compare the AFD with the NSDAP is such a dishonest attempt it actually ridicules the victims of the 2nd World War.
Before you write even more nonesense get your Google translate and go read the AFD eleciton program.
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u/Emergency_Gene_4171 1d ago
If you call everyone a Nazi, when a threat of similar magnitude to the actual Nazis comes no one will listen or care. The leader of the AfD is a lesbian married to a Sri-lankan woman. Not exactly a reincarnation of mustache man.
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u/One-Emu-1103 1d ago
Don't forget Elon Musk trying to influence the elections to be in favor of the AfD
https://www.dw.com/en/how-elon-musk-meddled-in-germanys-elections/a-71676473
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1d ago
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u/chilling_hedgehog 1d ago
People have kids that go to college now, which are older than this sucked out pseudo joke. Next time, just dont post anything and chuckle to yourself in the mirror for how funny you are.
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u/Exact_Green2061 1d ago
The reality is that any far-right government taking over a Western government is their proposed economic solutions won't solve the problems many countries are facing. They have two choices: double down, which is what Trump is doing, or moderate, which is what Meloni has done so far in Italy.
Meloni quietly flooded Italy with migrants
We have been through an exercise a couple of times already. It's one thing to say you understand voters' concerns about immigration, but then not have any solutions besides putting the immigrants in concentration camps and shipping all the brown people, even the ones born in Germany, elsewhere.
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u/absentlyric 23h ago
Sometimes its not about a solution, its about the punishment for those that got them there.
If I slacked off at my job, I deserve to be fired. Does that mean my replacement will be better than me? Not necessarily. But that doesn't mean that I shouldn't still be fired.
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u/thisseemslikeagood 1d ago
I still don’t understand why people can’t see the Putin money influencing peoples opinions.
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u/Asleep-Waltz2681 1d ago
Putin is like a Marvel super villain for some people. He is both uncapable and at the same can influence the eleciton of a country.
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u/ChainPlastic7530 1d ago
“Russia is so weak, losing anytime”
“We need to send other billions and billions to Ukraine otherwise Europe is lost”
How can these people be so stupid to think everything is about Russia and Putin lol
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u/One-Emu-1103 1d ago edited 1d ago
Elon Musk poured millions into it too.
https://www.dw.com/en/how-elon-musk-meddled-in-germanys-elections/a-71676473
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u/Onyx_Sentinel 1d ago
they do not care. we're at a stage in politics where nothing matters aside from emotions. At this stage no form of proof or facts can do anything. we're essentially boned.
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u/chilling_hedgehog 1d ago
East Germany is extremely russian friendly, with a combination of russia being the friend in the childhood in the GDR, casual anti-americanism and mental protest against capitalism and the generally (wrongfully) perceived decrease in quality of life since the wall fell.
They are seeing it, but they are ok with it because Russia is not their enemy and we "should all talk more to avoid caualties / russia is defending itself from nato imperialism".
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u/CandidWar994 1d ago
generally (wrongfully) perceived decrease in quality of life since the wall fell.
how is this real
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u/chilling_hedgehog 1d ago
What do you mean?
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u/CandidWar994 1d ago
i would assume life has gotten better there to the point the masses wouldn't be thinking that
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u/Any-Original-6113 1d ago
I was blown away when I saw that the AfD got almost 45%. Germany- what's happening to you?
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u/Emergency_Gene_4171 1d ago
The traditional parties have refused to change unpopular policies within the country, and after decades resentment and anger has built. People have watched their living standards decline and voting AfD is sort of a “F it, burn it down”.
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u/Sweet_and_Sassy88 1d ago
We see how well that worked out in the US.
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u/Jester388 1d ago
For people in cities? The economy went to shit.
For people in rural areas? The economy is the same, except now it's not just them suffering while the cities thrive.
You're gonna need a better line if you want to change how they vote.
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u/Sweet_and_Sassy88 1d ago
They can vote how they please. I’m just surprised that they would see what is happening with Trump and want the same thing for themselves.
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u/Condurum 1d ago
In this thread, the Germans at hand-waving the matter away. As if it was a matter of shame, in stead of a real political threat with global consequences. This should trigger some serious introspection for change.
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u/chilling_hedgehog 1d ago
Are these handwaves in the room with us right now? Did they touch you? What an idiotic, easily falsifyable attempt at a comment.
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u/Horror_Ride9619 1d ago
Giving this a space here to continue to exist:
https://www.reddit.com/r/UkraineWarVideoReport/comments/1w9eenl/germanys_farright_afd_set_for_big_win_in_eastern/
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u/buzzmaster17 1d ago
I’m really interested to know how far-right Europeans will reconcile their feelings about immigrants with the fact that in the coming years, their economies will become increasingly dependent on migrants filling technical roles to keep things functioning and to maintain any level of economic growth.
You hate immigrants, but every year your government is forced to let more people in because there simply aren’t enough workers to maintain critical infrastructure.
In the UK, I can already see this in the NHS, which is basically the most diverse workplace I’ve ever seen. Yet some native Britons still do not want to be treated by anyone who is non-white. You have far-right guys in the EU screaming for everyone who isn’t native to go home, while the person maintaining your city’s water supply is from Ghana lmao.
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u/Emergency_Gene_4171 1d ago edited 1d ago
The idea that Europeans can’t survive without desperately relying on immigrants is part of the elitist thinking that has given rise and popularity to parties like AfD and Reform.
Are there skilled immigrants who meaningfully contribute to the workforce? Of course. Are there many unskilled immigrants who utilize more state resources than they contribute? Also yes. In the last decade in
the UK and* Germany most non EU/non student migrants were a combination of asylum, family reunion cases, and dependents. All of these groups use more public services than they fund. That’s a difficult sell for the native people of those countries when quality of life is eroding at a seemingly rapid rate.There is an economic component to this as well. If you have a shortage in a technical field and you artificially fill it with skilled immigrants, you never systemically fix the shortage. Shortages are a problem, but the shortage itself often leads to organizing, negotiating higher pay, and incentivizes younger citizens of the country to pursue those roles themselves.
*Edited for clarity on types of migration
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u/Additional-Line-5559 1d ago
In the last decade in the UK and Germany most migrants were a combination of asylum, family reunion cases, and dependents.
This isn't true in the slightest.
Most immigrants to the UK over the past decade have either been students (who either leave or obtain worker visas once their degrees are done) or on skilled worker visas. The 'dependants' are largely just the spouses and children of those workers because most workers aren't going to move to a different country without their wife and kids.Asylum seekers are a tiny, tiny minority of immigrants to the UK over the past decade.
If anything, your comment literally demonstrates how easily misinformation can spread. It explains exactly why anti-immigration parties can be so successful because it takes time and effort to point out factual inaccuracies while it is so easy to say false things.
Shortages are a problem, but the shortage itself often leads to organizing, negotiating higher pay, and incentivizes younger citizens of the country to pursue those roles themselves.
The shortages are because there simply aren't enough workers. More people retire than enter the work force each year in the UK.
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u/Sufficient_Meet6836 1d ago
In the last decade in the UK and Germany most migrants were a combination of asylum, family reunion cases, and dependents.
Source for the breakdown on migration please.
All of these groups use more public services than they fund.
Source on this as well please. Actual research has shown immigration to be a net economic gain over and over again. Why would asylum seekers be a net loss, for example? Migrants to Germany in 2015 have employment nearly the same rates as native born Germans despite structural barriers that previously prevented formal employment, including actual bans on employment in some cases. Those structural barriers were often deliberately constructed by right ring governments:
A high level of right-wing extremist mobilization is negatively correlated with labor market integration. "Our findings show that a negative social climate further hinders integration—even where the economic conditions are actually good," says IAB researcher Philipp Jaschke.
That’s a difficult sell for the native people of those countries when quality of life is eroding at a seemingly rapid rate.
The AfD and other far right groups previously complained that migrants were all "military aged males" as part of their narrative that migration is actually some replacement conspiracy. Yet young men are the most likely migrants to work. Now you're complaining about the new composition of migrants.
Again, when actually engaging with data and not clinging to dogmatic beliefs, migration is a benefit. The evidence is clear that when migrants are given the opportunity for integration, they integrate quickly and effectively. Migration reform in 2015 in Germany reduced structural barriers, and that greatly increased the speed at which migrants succeed. The German parties that passed the Skilled Immigration Act in 2023 are actively improving the quality of life for both native Germans and migrants. The AfD is using populist, anti-immigrant messaging that ignores actual data and actively aims to make integration more difficult for migrants.
quality of life is eroding at a seemingly rapid rate.
This is similar messaging that MAGA uses in the US - that quality of life was better in the past, around the 1950s, despite all data to the contrary. One example being real wages at an all time high in both the US and Germany, despite right wing messaging of the opposite.
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u/DimensionOk8915 1d ago
It’s very hard to quantify those questions in Germany as they don’t report that kind of stuff I believe (there’s a big difference between an immigrant from Switzerland and an immigrant from Syria) However we can look to other European countries for answers.
For example in Denmark, non western immigrants cost the state 31 bn kroner. Thats from 2021, a lot of news outlets reported on it.
In the Netherlands, on average non western immigrants impose a lifetime fiscal cost of €167,000 per person whereas western immigrants provide a €42,000 per person. Immigrants from asylum regions (MENA) impose a cost of €300,000 per person. That’s from a document titled “The long term fiscal impact of immigrants in the netherlands differentiated by motive, source region and generation”
Not all immigrants are the same. The source of immigrants is the objection.
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u/Sufficient_Meet6836 20h ago edited 20h ago
It’s very hard to quantify those questions in Germany as they don’t report that kind of stuff I believe (there’s a big difference between an immigrant from Switzerland and an immigrant from Syria) However we can look to other European countries for answers.
Yes they do. I'm an American and was able to find economic analyses from Google scholar and regular Google as usual. The sources I'm referring to broke down the differences between origin and type of migration (voluntary labor vs asylum, for example).
For example in Denmark, non western immigrants cost the state 31 bn kroner. Thats from 2021, a lot of news outlets reported on it.
Context? Is that a net fiscal cost? Total economic effect? What's the source? Processing migrants of any type of course costs money. The question is (ignoring moral or humanitarian arguments) "does it pay off?". The answer to that has been found to be yes, in Germany cited above, in the UK, in Ireland. Is it possible that Germany uniquely has negative outcomes? I suppose it's possible, but strong evidence would be needed to conclusively argue for it. The study you linked does not provide that strong evidence.
In the Netherlands, on average non western immigrants impose a lifetime fiscal cost of €167,000 per person whereas western immigrants provide a €42,000 per person. Immigrants from asylum regions (MENA) impose a cost of €300,000 per person. That’s from a document titled “The long term fiscal impact of immigrants in the netherlands differentiated by motive, source region and generation”
Not all immigrants are the same. The source of immigrants is the objection.
Warning: long response incoming. tldr: the paper you cite has fundamental flaws that overestimate fiscal cost and underestimate fiscal contribution while simultaneously ignoring the actual economic benefits of migrants in favor of a limited fiscal only analysis.
This is interesting data and I appreciate you sharing it. I don't think it's as clear cut as presented. The paper is limited in scope: it does not take into account second order effects of migration. This is crucial when investigating the overall impact of immigration. The study does not attempt to answer the question, again just one example, "how did migrants impact overall economic output of natives?" The studies I reference do. For further analysis on spillover, substitution, and other second order effects, you can see this chapter as one example.
There's another large limitation of the study design:
Note that we treat every immigrant who resides in the Netherlands in 2016 as if he (she) arrived in 2016 at his recorded age at entry and assign values of net contributions observed for a residing immigrant by age in 2016. The value for year 2016 + 𝑡 is set at the value observed for an immigrant of age 𝑒 + 𝑡 in 2016, adjusted for future productivity growth, some policy parameter changes (like shifting retirement age) and discounting back to 2016. Lifetime values are calculated from age of entry until age of exit by death or remigration.
Why is this important to point out? Because it means they estimate the same contribution from a migrant who just arrived in 2016 and a migrant who has been in the country already for 5 years. That means they are underestimating the actual contributions of migrants. This is a common theme across the authors' work - they ignore the economic effects of migrants, focusing on purely fiscal analysis, and that fiscal analysis is calculated using assumptions that don't reflect reality. A quote from a citation below summarizes this issue aptly: "a 20-year-old in 2016 will behave like a 60-year-old from that same year in 2056".
Immigration has been shown to increase economic productivity of natives through a variety of mechanisms - migrants are often more innovative on average as measured by patent filings, and the increased demand from immigrants has the second order effect of increasing native wages, are just two examples of many mechanisms. These effects are not taken into account. It's an observational study that doesn't utilize natural or quasi-experimental design. It provides a useful but limited look at, basically, taxes vs benefits. When studies are performed using better designs, such as the plethora of studies on immigrant effects on wages in the US, immigration increases the wages of native born Americans.
You are also quoting only a partial finding of the paper. The net fiscal contribution of those groups was negative only in the first generation. Second generation typically outperforms first gen.
This demonstrates how disingenuous anti-migrant politicians have been (I'm not accusing you of being disingenuous). The early waves of migration were working age males, who positively contributed both immediately and in later generations, yet they have been attacked by the far right since migration increased the first place. The far right loves to point to the study you cited as post facto justification.
The source of immigrants is the objection.
For you, perhaps this is true, but this is not the argument that has been made for the past 10-15 years.
Referring to a separate book from the author:
For example, the "Borderless Welfare State" study said that immigrants cost some €17.3 billion yearly, after a net gain to the treasury of €3.4 billion was offset by €20.7 billion for public services.
"The latter figure was not based on data," said Jan Willem Gunning, professor of development economics at the Vrije Universiteit Amsterdam. "It was justified by a single sentence which amounted to a fundamental error: it was an argument for how much tax migrants should pay rather than to what extent the costs of public goods were caused by migrants."
Essentially, the study miscalculates migration costs by treating all public services as "rivalrous", meaning that a good or service's consumption by one person reduces its availability for another person.
Things like defence and flood protection are non-rivalrous, while the likes of police services and motorway management do need to be expanded as the population grows.
Emphasis mine, to show that the author is willing to make up or significantly bend data to fit an anti-immigration narrative. This same mistake is made in the study you cited.
When taking the different types of services into account, the economists said that the supposed €17.3 billion "loss" caused by migrants in 2016 falls to about €8.4 billion per year, or less than 1% of GDP.
They also said that any extra net costs of migration are offset by additional economic benefits, such as the fact that migrants often work for lower wages and help sustain sectors of the Dutch economy.
The van de Beek study fails to take into account that immigrants' situation in a host country tends to change over time, too, according to de Vries, and instead assumes that "a 20-year-old in 2016 will behave like a 60-year-old from that same year in 2056".
These are the same issues I noted above: their methodology overestimates the cost of benefits for migrants while simultaneously underestimating their economic contributions, and hence their fiscal contributions.
It is also worth mentioning that the authors of this study, the lead author in particular, are very vocal anti-immigration activities in general. They were vocal long before this study or any data possibly backed up this opposition. I am mentioning this last as it is not necessary to critique the study since it has methodological flaws.
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u/DimensionOk8915 14h ago
“ Calculated as a net cost or nettobidrag , the figure is based on state spending on public services related to immigration and welfare benefits received by immigrants. This means that, along with spending on benefits, the costs of public services to which everyone in Denmark has access are included in the calculation. As such, the costs per person of things like health care, child care, education and culture are factored into the calculation of what the state spends on specified groups and individuals. Tax contributions from persons who fall into the category ‘non-Western immigrant or descendant’ are deducted from the total.”
Maybe I missed something in the two articles you posted in your original comment but I couldn’t find anything about whether immigrants “paid off” in Germany. I did see that the employment rate for refugee men was on par with the average but that I think it was like 36% of all refugees were still on benefits which is way above the national average and that full time refugee earning was 70% of the national median.
The article on Ireland only breaks it down by EU vs non EU which doesn’t really have any meaning to this conversation as I’m specifically talking about MENA countries.
Yes I wouldn’t be surprised if the authors weren’t a fan of immigration. However having a synthetic starting point is only a problem if you can prove that the bias was so severe that it could overturn such massive figures. Second generation also does outperform the first but when it comes to immigrants from MENA they are still well below the national average. Like I’ve been saying the source of immigration matters a lot. There’s a big difference between a Mexican immigrant who arrives in the US willing to work and a family from Somalia who come here illegally and live in social housing.
I think immigration, if done right and in small quantities can be good for the overall economy. I do think mass importing immigrants from countries like India and the Philippines to fill in labour shortages will be bad in the long run as it hinders local grads from entering the employment market (look at all the H1B visas in tech for example). It also harms the countries back home as their local talent is leaving. People love to say but muh GDP go up when it comes to immigration but there is more than one way to make the line go up and in a more sustainable way.
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u/buzzmaster17 1d ago
These are good points tbf. To fully respond to your questions on why so many unskilled immigrants move to said countries, you need to look at the ideas of neocolonialism and the role Europe plays in destabilizing other parts of the world, and whether you can really complain about mass migration to your land if your country is involved in destabilizing nations for resource extraction. But I don't really want to argue on Reddit about it.
Outside of that, the birth rates are simply too low in most countries to produce the skilled workers needed long term, and most European governments have no incentive to fix the shortages. It's cheaper for them to import workers who would work for lower wages than to upskill/train their own citizens and promote high birth rates. So I get why you are mad at the government if you're the average citizen. But imo, most governments don't really care about their citizens' day-to-day wellbeing they simply care about maintaining their own existence.
I would also argue that rather than wages being suppressed, they were actually artificially inflated over the last 60/70 years due to a lack of competition and knowledge hoarding. When most of the world is either recovering from colonialism and you have a head start, it is easy to be able to charge what you want if your people have all the skills. But when, for example, everyone globally knows how to code, it's less that the wages for said skill are being suppressed and more that it's simply become commoditised and is going down to its true market rate/value. That is, unless you believe certain countries deserve higher pay and living standards than others.
So yeah, I can empathize. I just don't think the government sees your needs as a priority and is more concerned about the maintenance of the state than the well-being of its average citizen. These two things aren't linked. I don’t think that makes me sound elitist, maybe a bit cold but its life.
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u/Emergency_Gene_4171 1d ago
I agree that having a long drawn out debate on Reddit probably wouldn’t serve either of us, and I admire your empathy for people less fortunate.
I’d push back a little on the legacy of colonialism, in that it is horrific but I don’t believe in blood guilt. A people is not indebted because of the guilt of their grandfathers. It’s good to learn those lessons and remember them, but we are all individuals and history is full of atrocities commited by peoples of every color and creed.
Outside of that, the birth rates are simply too low in most countries to produce the skilled workers needed long term, and most European governments have no incentive to fix the shortages. It's cheaper for them to import workers who would work for lower wages than to upskill/train their own citizens and promote high birth rates. So I get why you are mad at the government if you're the average citizen. But imo, most governments don't really care about their citizens' day-to-day wellbeing they simply care about maintaining their own existence.
Completely agree with you here and I think it sheds light on why people feel hopeless enough to vote Reform or AfD, etc.
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u/Direct_Jeweler_7457 1d ago
Ha ha this dead german center right party is on liveleak i can goon to this
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u/Emergency_Gene_4171 1d ago
Really this comes down to the CDU refusing to change course or meaningfully alter unpopular policies. It’s not enough to suggest banning opposition parties or to call them racist. You actually have to have a plan that appeals to people. Right now their plan is “how does more of the same sound?”.