r/elonmusk • u/twinbee • 3d ago
I even remember this scatter graph from late 2024 (Guidehouse Insights)
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u/UNSC-ForwardUntoDawn 3d ago edited 3d ago
Fairly certain this graph is older than 2024.
In 2015 they started making these charts.
In 2018 Tesla started being labeled as the biggest loser.
2018:
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/car-industry/tesla-apple-trail-self-driving-pack-study/
2020:
https://www.cnet.com/roadshow/car-industry/self-driving-study-navigant-research-tesla-waymo-cruise/
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u/twinbee 3d ago edited 3d ago
Nice find. I think they update it frequently, maybe every year. Here's a similar version from 2023 and I think the one I posted is buried in this article.
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u/twinbee 3d ago
How much must you blindly hate Tesla and Elon so much to come up with this tripe.
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u/iamapauhsay 2d ago
bro the chart was looking at level 4 autonomy. consumer FSD is impressive but fundamentally level 2 (a human is in the drivers seat, a human is responsible). cybercab rollout is level 4, full stop, but tesla just operationalized it whereas waymo has been doing this for 8 years.
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u/kolecava 3d ago
Blindly hate Elon? I mean, the hate is very warranted 🤣
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u/expatriateineurope 3d ago
The graph is fucking nonsense.
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u/kolecava 3d ago
Sure, generally speaking, the hate on Elon, is warranted.
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u/777_heavy 3d ago
No, it isn’t.
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u/kolecava 2d ago
jesus either there are countless Elon bots or people are seriously delusional and up his arse. It's ok, I used to be like that too.
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u/777_heavy 2d ago
Not up his ass. Just really don’t see a justification for the extreme hatred out there.
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u/NumerousFloor9264 2d ago
You’re fighting a wall of hatred my man - tough battle, regardless of you being correct 😂
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u/777_heavy 2d ago
Lol it’s basically the only reason I have a reddit account. I know I’m never going to change anyone’s mind on the internet - I’m just here to burst their safe space bubble.
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u/Evolvin 20h ago
How about the richest man in the world paying fluffers to try and make himself look good at video games?
This is the only thing I need to hear to know that Elon has irreparable character flaws which display him as being unfit to guide anything about the social future of humanity.
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u/HamsterMan5000 truth speaker 9h ago
This is the IQ level of the blind Elon haters. Openly admit they don't need any actual information on anything that matters.
Just straight up bragging about their ignorance
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u/CommunismDoesntWork 3d ago
Name one thing he's done that warrants hate then
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u/HerodotusStark 3d ago
DOGE alone warrants it. Did you hear the deposition of those idiots? The lies about how money they were saving?
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u/vbullinger 3d ago
I wish DOGE was still running, with Elon and Vivek still there, but doing ten times as much cutting and having carte blanche to cut whatever with no sacred cows.
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u/HerodotusStark 2d ago
Someone clearly failed civics.
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u/vbullinger 2d ago
I got fives on all my social studies AP classes.
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u/HerodotusStark 2d ago
🤣
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u/vbullinger 2d ago
I mean… you literally can’t score better than me. Over 100% in geography. Won all the bowls and competitions.
You’re laughing at the LeBron James of the subject
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u/HerodotusStark 2d ago
Hahahahahahhaha. No, you'd need a doctorate in civics and be one of the leading civics professors in the country at least to come anywhere close to being the LeBron James of it, not 5s on a fucking high school test. Also, wtf does geography have to do with civics? You've gotta be trolling.
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u/Firm_Put_24 2d ago
So they'd be responsible for killing 6 million people instead of 600k? Brilliant
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u/TatumBird22 3d ago
I'm sure your deep institutional knowledge should be taken seriously.
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u/vbullinger 2d ago
They were cutting millions per day
If they cut a BILLION per day:
365 billion per year
Four year term? $1.46 trillion in cuts
Good start
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u/TatumBird22 2d ago
Lol thanks for proving my point.
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u/vbullinger 2d ago
Guess you like a gigantic military budget and being tens of trillions in debt
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u/TatumBird22 2d ago
Oh? Did Dodge cut a ton of military spending? Lol Didn't even try. Little puppets for show and distraction, nothing more. Literally didn't cut the deficit at all and only managed to kill off foreign people who depended on the charity of our nation.
I know your peepaw probably bitched about "government spending" too, but you know about as much about government spending as you know economics in general.
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u/No_Tart_4311 2d ago
The military budget literally increased. The debt also increased. If you support trump and elon I guess it’s you who likes a gigantic military budget and high debt.
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u/Firm_Put_24 2d ago
Owning slaves?
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u/Dramatic-Fly761 3d ago
The future of FSD will require LiDAR and cameras (and eventually V2X communication and sensing) until Tesla builds in LiDAR they are followers.
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u/wordpredict 3d ago
It’s funny how people think lidar is the issue. When then real issue is compute and decision making. These people who are criticizing camera only solutions are not even engineers.
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u/CommunismDoesntWork 3d ago
Yeah memory is probably the biggest bottle neck at this point tbh. LLMs proved scale works. The same applies to self driving. My guess is unsupervised happens with HW5
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u/Dramatic-Fly761 2d ago
LiDAR is how you collect the data required to supplement camera in situations where the cameras cannot provide the required information (low to no light, too like colors, false positives). As a guy who works on the strategy for a company developing standards around self driving this is not some uninformed opinion, it is A very real issue.
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u/wordpredict 2d ago
False positives are a software problem. Also how in the world is lidar going to help with two like colors? The point is the problem can be done with vision only and training it using neural nets in virtual worlds brings us to that capability. Remember if a human can do it with vision only then it’s certainly possible for ANN
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u/Dramatic-Fly761 2d ago
How is LiDAR going to help with a red road versus a red car or a white cloud versus the back of an 18 wheeler? I’ll let you go ahead and noodle on that for a moment Mr. engineer
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u/ajwin 3d ago
Why do people think that Lidar is necessary when monocular distance estimation from cameras is accurate enough? Why is V2X necessary when the cameras can read intent from the others cars stance/posture and the faces of the people in the other cars and where they are looking etc. Lots of people expect Lidar to disappear from other cars because the cost of processing the data from both the cameras and lidar is so expensive for such little gain.
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u/the8bit 3d ago
You think reading intent from passengers in other cars is a better plan than lidar? I can't even begin to explain how silly that is
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u/wordpredict 3d ago
I just don’t think it’s necessary. LiDAR is definitely more accurate in terms of getting measurements. I don’t think anyone is arguing that. It’s just not necessary when the problem can be solved with a vision only system. The problem is a compute problem not a data acquisition problem.
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u/the8bit 3d ago
Compute is not exactly "free real estate" if lidar can do it in 100ms and vision in 3s with a large CPU budget you might be technically correct but you've just shifted a fixed cost (buying lidar) into a different technical problem (processing fast enough and locally enough) AND a variable cost (paying for the compute / energy over time).
I'm not an expert on this but I listen to the experts on this. And the experts continuously say that not using lidar is technically possible. But quite stupid and not nearly as safe.
Which honestly matches my personal impression of Elon. He is quite the king of " technically works but cut corners on safety to save money" I can give you a dozen examples of this if you are so interested, but I really don't think you care quite frankly
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u/wordpredict 3d ago
When I say compute I am meaning inferring and decision making. And listening to so called experts on YouTube doesn’t really count as listening to experts. The point is these decisions are not being made by Elon musk the engineers on the Tesla team are some of the most talented and capable people in their field. I am an electrical engineer and do embedded gps telemetric systems. What Tesla is doing is well within reason.
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u/the8bit 3d ago
Within reason or the safest answer?
I didn't say it wouldn't work. It clearly works. When it's coming to the idea of putting my life on the line, I'm going to want the thing that works best even if it costs $400 more on a $60,000 car. If you think that trade-off isn't very good then I mean have at it friend.
Especially when the person saying it's not necessary is the same person doing things like avoiding emissions legislation and running gas turbines out of semis because he couldn't be assed to put it down real energy infrastructure.
Also bro down voting because I don't agree with you how f****** Petty
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u/wordpredict 3d ago
I didn’t downvote you. I don’t ever do that. I honestly think lidar can over complicate the problem space because it has to be paired with a vision system. This forces sensor fusion and brings up new problems that wouldn’t exist otherwise with vision only. lidar makes the problem easier upfront because you have very good measurements and lean harder on the hardware for poor software, when in reality 99% of the problem is software.
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u/the8bit 3d ago
Shrug guess it is drive by people then, which is even sadder.
Redundant systems is a key part of software design for safety systems though? (You said you are EE, I do site reliability for big tech).
It is kinda insane to say that merging two data feeds is anywhere near as complicated as what you suggested -- using raw image feeds to infer facial expressions on people in other cars.
One of those is a small engineering team and the other is a research project or something that would require 2-3s per frame and a ~opus sized compute rig to do (with current tech). So it needs to get about 25x faster and maybe 1000x less compute intensive
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u/Dramatic-Fly761 2d ago
V2X can significantly enhance inter-vehicle decision making and allowing for sensing from other devices beyond cars essentially eliminating blind spots. LiDAR is a supplemental technology that can solve camera only system weak points. A standard for data consolidation and semantic communication will eliminate the date concerns around cameras and LiDAR.
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3d ago
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u/BankBackground2496 3d ago
Pony ai does not sell cars. It's taxis have done 62 million miles. Tesla's robotaxis have done 1 million.
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u/Crash_Ntome 3d ago
op needs to put some ointment on the rash she’s got from her raging case of EDS
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u/Firm_Put_24 2d ago
Elon is very deranged
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u/SmallTimeCook 2d ago
I remember when you used to wait in the car. And as far I’m concerned you should STILL BE THERE
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u/AcrobaticKitten 2d ago
No units on axes
Not even measurable properties