Best econometrics text books

[u/tulipan_choripan]

Hi everyone! I'm currently working as a port development analyst and I have been recently assigned to forecast maritime demands. I'm looking for a econometric and/or an advanced statistic textbook where i can learn about different models and be able to descriminate among their application for its application in the transportation field.

Thank u all in advance!!!

[u/Hello_Biscuit11]

What's your econometric and statistical background so far? That would help get you some better recommendations.

That said doing a good job forecasting is hard. I would personally be super worried if I had no training in it, and my job asked me to do it. Unless they're not going to care if my forecasts are accurate I suppose.

If you are really left with no choice but to do this as an amateur, you should at least try to temper expectations from the onset.

[u/tulipan_choripan → u/Hello_Biscuit11]

Hi! I’m an Industrial Civil Engineer, so I have a background in statistics, although my experience has mostly been with applied statistics in supply chain and inventory management.

I understand that I could potentially apply regression models, but I’m looking for something more economically grounded and methodologically robust to use as a benchmark or alternative.

My boss gave me a study to use as a reference in which the consulting team applied Varimax rotation, arguing that regression models are too simplistic and “amateur,” and that this approach was a better fit for the problem. However, they do not provide any references or methodological justification for this choice, so it seems to be based largely on their own “expert judgment.” From what I understand, Varimax is a rotation method used in PCA or factor analysis rather than a standalone alternative to regression.

Since this is not my area of specialization, I’m looking for a master’s-level textbook that would allow me to study the underlying theory and methodology in depth, rather than simply learning how to apply the technique. Ideally, the book would also include examples or references related to economics, public policy, transportation, ports, or maritime and road transportation, as these are the areas I work in.

I’d particularly appreciate a resource that helps me understand when factor analysis/PCA and Varimax are actually appropriate, how they compare with regression and other econometric approaches, and how to critically assess the methodological choice made in the study I was given.

[u/Hello_Biscuit11 → u/tulipan_choripan]

The thing with prediction is it's very hard to know which model is appropriate. This is why model selection is part of the process in machine learning. Calling regression "simplistic" and "amateur" is nonsense - that encompasses a huge range of models that are highly useful. It depends on your data.

If your boss wants you to apply Varimax, and you have no training that would suggest otherwise, I highly suggest you just apply Varimax and see what it says. That at least protects you - you just did what they said! As soon as you get creative, you're to some degree claiming to know what you're doing.

This really isn't an appropriate task to assign to someone who doesn't do forecasting. I would venture to say that even most economists don't do forecasting.

[u/the_corporate_agenda]

Check out the following introduction to time series econometrics:

https://www.johnhcochrane.com/research-all/time-series-for-macroeconomics-and-finance

This is a free set of notes by Cochrane which approximate an intro textbook.

To be clear, I don't know much about the statistics that they teach engineers, but my preconception is that your education focused a lot on the analytic how and not a lot on the analytic why. If you find yourself getting lost in Cochrane, I think intro Wooldridge has a chapter or two about time series, even if he isn't a time series guy.

[u/NoCorrelationBro]

This might be most relevant:
Modeling of Transport Demand: Analyzing, Calculating, and Forecasting Transport Demand
Modeling of Transport Demand - 1st Edition | Elsevier Shop

Maritime Economics by Martin Stopford is probably also worth a glance.

Maritime Economics - Google Books

[u/tulipan_choripan → u/NoCorrelationBro]

WOW looks good 👌 thnks a lot, I'm will check both of them! 🙌