US offers to oversee disputed Armenia-Azerbaijan corridor

[u/senolgunes]

https://www.middleeasteye.net/news/us-offers-oversee-disputed-armenia-azerbaijan-corridor

[u/senolgunes]

The important part:

Meanwhile, Turkey has quietly urged Baku to sign the peace agreement, reminding Azerbaijani officials of shifting regional dynamics, such as Iran’s waning influence.

A regional source familiar with the negotiations told Middle East Eye that it was Turkey that originally proposed the idea of a private company, approved by both Armenia and Azerbaijan, managing the corridor.

"However, the Armenian side demanded that the company should also work on the Nakhchivan side of the corridor, which was unacceptable for Baku," the source said.

I said this 10 days ago:

In a deal where Azerbaijan gets special transit rights in Syunik (if that's the plan), it would only be fair if Armenia would get the same in Nakhchivan. That route would about halved the time it takes to get from Meghri to Yerevan, and most likely increase the trade volumes manyfold. And there would be no hurry to spend money on an expensive train route through the mountains within Armenia.

https://www.reddit.com/r/armenia/comments/1lqyyo0/yerevan_not_denying_us_proposal_on_corridor_for/n18fh1d/

It has seemed like that is what Turkey has been pushing for lately, since it would be beneficial for everyone involved. Pashinyan's visit to Turkey was probably also related to this.

[u/JeanJauresJr → u/senolgunes]

If indeed Iran’s waning influence is the determining factor here, why wouldn’t Azerbaijan go maximalist on the corridor?

[u/senolgunes → u/JeanJauresJr]

Aliyev is having a maximalist approach:

the Armenian side demanded that the company should also work on the Nakhchivan side of the corridor, which was unacceptable for Baku

The question is how long he can withstand the pressure from Turkey and the US. Erdogan wants a peace agreement asap so we can normalize with Armenia without him being accused ditching Azerbaijan.

Aliyev probably wants one "win" so he can say it's compensation for the past 30 years. Stability and influence from democratic countries in the region isn't exactly in his interest as a dictator either.

[u/JeanJauresJr → u/senolgunes]

Well, I meant maximalist towards the “corridor”. I thought he would want Azerbaijan to maintain it and not give into Americans doing it…

[u/senolgunes → u/JeanJauresJr]

I think the main goal is to access Nakhchivan without tolls and inspections, if they get that for 100 years then Aliyev is probably happy. But if Armenia gets the same thing through Nakhchivan then he might not like it because of the optics.

[u/Argentarius1 → u/senolgunes]

Why does Iran getting weaker mean its in Turkey's interest to lessen the pressure on Armenia? Surely the country protecting Syunik getting weaker means they would get more aggressive no?

[u/senolgunes → u/Argentarius1]

Imo Turkey only cares about getting the middle corridor done, regardless of who controls the land, it just wants security and usage guarantees. Otherwise it won't invest billions into new highways and railways.

Turkey-Georgia-Azerbaijan, Georgia-Armenia-Iran are alternatives to a Turkey-Armenia-Azerbaijan trade corridor. Georgia is bordering Russian and has a Russian friendly government, so I guess it's not seen as reliable as this corridor.

Iran weakening would probably mean the Georgia-Armenia-Iran is less likely to happen anytime soon, so Armenia could more easily be encouraged to accepting this corridor. Especially if you get access through Nakhchivan and maybe access to Turkish ports.

Turkey-Iran-Azerbaijan/Turkey-Iran is also a possibility, but Turkey is being pressured by the West to not allowing Iran into such projects.

[u/Robustosaurus → u/senolgunes]

This has been Turkey's main goal for years, it is largely Azerbaijan that has no interest in opening this corridor without complete territorial control. Turkey doesn't care about Azerbaijan's territorial ambitions against Armenia, no thanks largely due to the complete political failure for Turkey in the second karabakh war.

The real reason for US involvement is most likely to dislodge Russia from the border and to create another pressure point of Iran (who remains very quiet in this discussion).

Per Hacopians analysis, he is so far right, everything in American decision-making is purely to control their own economic/business oligarch interests. By the USA somewhat taking the shots in the meghri corridor, it makes an attack on Syunik less practical and feasible for Azerbaijan. Even if Azerbaijan takes Vayotz Dzor's narrowest point, I seriously don't think that transportation would have the same type of damage nor be on the same calibre as taking Meghri.

The biggest concern an Armenian should take here with big American investment is to stay cautious over "the American economic model" coming and entrenching deep into the Armenian political elite, of which both the previous regime and the current Pashinyan government underlings have been all but happy to embrace, knowing how incredibly corrupt and oligarchic America has increasingly become.

Armenia should be putting it's eggs in every national basket it can, not taking every egg from the Russian basket and puting all of them into an American basket...

[u/tahdig_enthusiast]

Disputed? This wording is very worrying, there is no corridor and there never was one.

[u/spetcnaz]

There is no disputed corridor. It's the sovereign territory of Republic of Armenia.

[u/BVBmania]

If we don't collect tolls and taxes on that road and don't control what passes with our own laws you can forget about Armenia. That's the only basically geographically significant thing about our country and we may as well not exist in any sense of geopolitics.

Edit: PM spoks refuted this and says Armenia does not have in its laws to lend any part of the country other than for agricultural purposes.

[u/totemlight]

The fucking news pieces. What is a “disputed corridor”? It’s literally Armenian territory.

[u/Ma-urelius]

I am glad its still called a corridor.
I am sure this want make any type of problems in the future given the ones we are treating are Turks :D/s

[u/MoorAlAgo]

Are there any specifics on the US firm?

[u/senolgunes → u/MoorAlAgo]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Trump_Organization? "The Big Beautiful Trump Corridor"

[u/MoorAlAgo → u/senolgunes]

Is the "private US commercial operator" mentioned in the article supposed to be the Trump Organization or is it some company that has business relations (either direct or indirect) with them?

Genuinely curious on who they're thinking of overseeing the area.

[u/senolgunes → u/MoorAlAgo]

I have no clue actually, I don't think it's mentioned yet.

This just happened btw https://x.com/TRTWorldNow/status/1944783492631474356

[u/MoorAlAgo → u/senolgunes]

Gotcha, thank you.

Also, this might be just me, but I can't help but feel like Trump is just there along for the ride with this issue. The way he looks down to read the statements and his general mannerisms make it look like he barely knows or cares what's going on.

Which is why I'm interested in what the company is and what kind of political connections they have.

[u/senolgunes → u/MoorAlAgo]

Yeah, he even had to double-check the name for Azerbaijan :P

I'm pretty sure he's pushing for deals everywhere because he actually wants the Nobel peace prize, the man is world's #1 narcissist. So it's important for us to make sure it's actually a good deal for everyone and not just a bandaid which will lead to more conflicts later on. Knowing which company it is and what responsibilities it would have is of course one of the main issues.

[u/MoorAlAgo → u/senolgunes]

"Azer-*checks notes*-baijan" lol.

I totally agree. Also now with increasing protests against him in places like LA, as well as the whole Epstein list situation, I absolutely believe Trump is desperate for some kind of win.

So it's important for us to make sure it's actually a good deal for everyone and not just a bandaid which will lead to more conflicts later on. Knowing which company it is and what responsibilities it would have is of course one of the main issues.

Agreed, but also I want to know how they're connected to Trump's political friends, who as far as I can tell are at best Trump sycophants or at worst outright white nationalists.

While I'm cautiously optimistic in general, I'm genuinely terrified of who potentially might be involved.

Edit: Honestly the more I think of it, the less optimistic I am. Idk.

[u/senolgunes]

Out of curiosity, was this post flaired "Falsification/propaganda / Կեղծում/քարոզչություն" because of the use of the word "corridor"? I initially changed the title but then had a look in the rules and rule 10 says:

No editorialization of article headlines, crosspost titles or allowed social media content

Someone shared the same news from an Armenian source which has the original title "ԱՄՆ առաջարկում է 100 տարով վարձակալել Հայաստանի և Ադրբեջանի միջև տրանսպորտային միջանցքը", where միջանցքը I guess means corridor (like Բերձորի միջանցք and Հյուսիս-հարավ միջանցքը), but the title used here is "The US has proposed taking control of the planned transport hub between Armenia and Azerbaijan." and it's flaired as "politics" despite using my post as the source, having the same news and wordings.

Should I editorialize in the future?

[u/SnooOwls2871]

Americans botched probably the best way open communication could be organized - via a third-party private company that would be a buffer between us and them.

I am not sure if regular Armenians and Azeris would be ready to communicate within a feasible future.

But their wording and too early announcement without coordination just botched that project.

[u/TAL_in]

You know, I am confident it is a moment where Armenia has finally a peaceful corridor to finally reconsider its strategy, alliances and military policy. And I am more confident that Armenian will fuck it up tbh, lol

But still I believe that US presence in region + France being most reliable NATO ally can be a decent start. Maybe Armenia as a country having good relationship with Iran and some sentiments from Israel can manage to establish a panel for Iran Israel normalisation which in the end of the day will create somewhat not fucked up axis in the middle east with safe borders plus valuable technological western partners idk. Not an expert just a dreamer

[u/Senc-baner → u/TAL_in]

You know what other countries near Iran have US presence? Iraq, Syria and Jordan. Bringing the US into this region has always been a destabilising force, I really have no idea how people are OK with this.

Iran Israel normalisation

Definitely a dreamer lol

[u/[deleted] → u/TAL_in]

And I am more confident that Armenian will fuck it up tbh, lol

Not an expert just a dreamer

Those are some weird ass dreams. 

[u/TAL_in → u/[deleted]]

You totally misread me and used citation out of context

[u/[deleted] → u/TAL_in]

I quoted two sentences from your comment together to display your incongruencies. How was this misread and out of context? 

You dream of an Armenia that receives help from the West but not of an Armenia that won’t fuck up? Interesting…