You could be a literal AI card counting machine at 100% correct moves and 100% playtime efficiency (making your move before the card even properly sits on the table) and still hit runs of bad variance in the scale of negative 6 figures, even with "modest" bet ranges. It is very unlikely something like this will happen on any given day but most counters will hit strings of casinos across entire states over the span of weeks while playing 10+ hours a day. You will hit bad variance at that point
I've also seen casinos kick out card counters that were down 20,000 or more on the day just because they still knew they were counting and it's statistically more likely they will "win" on any given hand. If anything they're more likely to hit a run of good hands at that point of being so far down assuming perfect play
No, it wasn't gambler's fallacy. It's how card counting works; if the count is low, the player is at a disadvantage (relative to the normal house edge) and at an advantage when it's high. So if a card counter is down, but they're on the same shoe (stack of decks), then it's not gambler's fallacy for them to stay at the table as long as they keep their strategy straight. Once the shoe runs out, then it's reset.
Unless they've randomly chosen a high roller table for their scenario, that player has gone through many shoes such that it's readily assumed they're at a neutral state of play. Thus, inferring future winnings from past, independent losses is absolutely gambler's fallacy
I don't gamble, but I do believe in large numbers and large trends. I understand gamblers fallacy but you also can only get so unlucky while on the 10th millionth data point
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u/Deep90 Jul 20 '26 edited Jul 20 '26
For real.
Nobody has ever been kicked out for being shit at card counting.