A massive punishment for the Clippers (if it sticks) is an ideal outcome I was rooting for, because their 2028 pick in theory is going to the Celtics and them losing the ability to trade some of their future 1sts makes their path toward competing in the 2027-28 season much harder.
However, before we start celebrating a potential top 5 pick, it's fair to consider the worst-case outcomes. A LOT can happen a season. In May 2025, I certainly didn't expect that we'd see Tatum get seriously injured, Knicks knock us out after blowing back-to-back 20 point leads, see Horford, Jrue, Porzingis elsewhere, have Philly knock us out in round 1 after blowing a 3-1 lead, see the Knicks win a title, and trade Brown to the Philly where he formed a super team with a min contract LeBron james.
Clippers have no incentive to tank so will be attempting everything possible to be competitive. They more than likely will suck this year and unfortunately their 2027 pick is going to the Thunder.
So what can they do to be competitive in 2027-28?
I thought the Zubac trade was killer at the time, because they net Mathurin, the top 5 pick and a future 1st. They've now seen Mathurin walk and lost that future 1st, but selected Keaton Wagler at #5. Not sure how high Wagler's ceiling is, but high potential players can develop a lot quicker than expected and in theory he could be contributing at a high level in 2027-28.
In addition to not having their 2027 or 2028 1sts, they are forfeiting 2029, 2030, 2031, 2032 and 2033 (if the full punishment sticks). However, some of that blow is softened by the recent Kawhi trade where they are picking up Ingram (41 mil player option in 2027-28), Dick and unprotected Raptors picks in 2031 and 2033
Assuming Ingram picks up his 2027-28 player option, Garland is their only other player making serious money that season (44 mil) during his final year. Neither player is amazing, but both are 20 point scorers who can help them stay competitive.
Can they make a big trade before 2027-28?: That still should be a slight concern. The expirings of Garland/Ingram, the two raptors 1sts, and recently selected #5 Wagler can get them in the discussion for players in the same way Boston fans are banking on "Paul George's expiring + mostly shitty picks" to land them a superstar.
Can they sign someone major before 2027-28?: I think this would be a bigger concern. I imagine Garland and Ingram are both two guys who could be tradeable in 2026-27 to bring in picks and expirings. Clippers have no other major money on the books so if they wanted to position themselves for free agency in summer 2027, there's a bunch of names they could look to throw money at next Summer and the fact remains that if there's cap space, Los Angeles will always be a destination celebrity athletes want to play in (Lakers owe like 10 of their 12 championships to another team's superstar gifting themselves to Los Angeles). Potential 2027 free agents: https://www.nba.com/news/looking-ahead-nba-free-agency-2027 ... Many of the guys listed there unrestricted (or player options to become unrestricted) like Jokic, Durant, Steph, LeBron, Towns, Kyrie, Davis, etc probably get extended before hitting free agency, but given the insanity we've just experienced this year, I wouldn't bet my life against the Clippers acquiring as many picks as possible this season, freeing up all their cap room, making a huge trade for a max contract superstar, signing another, then convincing LeBron, Durant, Steph, and Davis to all opt out and join forces for the vet min on their newformed LA Super team. Who knows. Is that likely? Of course not. But a lot of crazy shit can happen in a year and it's not at all unthinkable that the Clippers are competitive in 2027-28.
The other wrinkle is the draft odds flattening. Even if they suck and have the worst record, their pick can now fall as low as 12th. There's a 72% chance a bottom 3 team ends up outside the top 5. This works in reverse though. If the Clippers are a play-in team, there's still like a 2.7%-5.4% chance they end up with the #1 pick and something like 11%-25% the pick ends up top 4. Worst case, they'd make the playoffs in 2027-28 and screw up our golden asset.
TL;DR: 2028 Clippers pick is juicy and might have gotten juicier, but don't go counting chickens yet.